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Author Topic: future of alternative energy?  (Read 5304 times)

mobile_bob

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future of alternative energy?
« on: June 14, 2012, 10:34:49 PM »
guys, i don't know if you folks frequent utterpower.com
but George has been doing some investigative work  into how our tax dollars are being spent
on Alternative Energy schemes.

we all heard about the solindra debacle and the electric car problem
now it seems we have another that is likely to come unraveled

check it out here

http://www.utterpower.com/nrels-amonix-pages/

for some reason the press isn't touching it, no one is asking the hard questions, save or George

the problem i see with this government picked winners or rather picked loosers (frequently) is in the end
it damages the Alternative energy industry.

tax payers loose millions if not billions, 401k's get hit, and the result is a public that finally wakes up and over reacts
not wanting anything ever to do with AE again!

we have seen this play out before, back in the 70's when every joker in the world built all manner of AE stuff, made huge
claims that of course didn't pan out, and the result was the public revolted against the whole mess....the problem then became
a lot of very good people and companies that were building good products couldn't sell their products and we all lost out.

once the jig is up, there will be no money for good projects, and all of this will be seen as only so much snake oil by an ill informed
public, which of course elect folks that are often even less informed.

what do you guys think?
i want to know how you guys feel about this sort of thing? i am thinking we ought to be involved on some level in the discussion
and asking some questions.  we all know how hard it is for us to get anywhere with the epa, why should these guys have a clear pass
and not at least have to answer a few questions?

thoughts?

bob g
otherpower.com, microcogen.info, practicalmachinist.com
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dieselgman

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2012, 12:18:37 AM »
Tilting at windmills? I am a pragmatist and more than a little bit cynical about the whole mess our government and regulatory agencies are in. Revolution is likely the only way to shift this kind of power. I do my part, live simply, try to educate those around me, avoid most of the negative stuff - especially the corrupt systems. I routinely vote with my pocketbook, but who knows how much real effect we can have? Recent events in the middle-east (Arab spring) perhaps holds a little promise for where we are heading eventually. Think globally - act locally.

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cujet

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2012, 01:34:09 PM »
mobile bob,

I'm not happy with my tax dollars being frittered away on energy products with a poor return rate (EROI). Especially when such mundane projects are done in relative secrecy. However, there is another side to the story. One that goes back through a long list of successes.

I'd rather look at the mismanagement aspect from a personal point of view. Our current leadership does not understand energy clearly. (we can't make excuses for them, they simply don't) With that in mind, they want to achieve success, in very much the same way as was done in the past. (think industrial agriculture, supersonic flight, atom, NASA etc) So, they simply throw money and resources at the problem, and the results speak for themselves. If we could change the mindset of leadership to something like a "10 year, 100% energy independence" goal, akin to the space program, we could expect very different results. And a flurry of development, by both government funded entities and private companies wishing to compete. Failure would never be considered possible. The end result would be increased prosperity for Americans.

However, I believe there are some requirements that must be understood first.

1) America consumes massive energy.
2) America is going to need even more energy.
3) People can't afford expensive energy, and don't want to "conserve".
4) People don't want tiny cars, limited range, uncomfortably hot or cold homes, crammed public transportation.
5) An acceptance of all things nuclear.  LFTR and other technologies must be funded and tried.

So, in my mind, the goal must be "overproduction of clean energy". Decidedly the opposite of "expensive limited production". 

Get rid of the current leadership and install those with clear, accurate vision. Revolution is not required. Quality leadership is.
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mobile_bob

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2012, 08:05:59 PM »
after the supreme court decision today on the health care bill, my prediction
is we will have much different leadership after the next election.

how much different will largely depend on how much worse the economy gets, what happens with the change of power in egypt, the european economic issue, and how tolerant folks are come november.

my bet is folks patience will have worn very thin, if not completely out by then.

i agree we ought to be funding AE/RE on a national level, however it needs to be monitored and overseen by true experts not only form the specific fields but also other disciplines to provide some clarity.

for example, while it is fine to have wind power experts on a panel, perhaps having a couple of physicists and a couple of wall street bean counters on the panel too? the physicists can provide a sense of reality when it comes to the law's of nature, the accountants can provide some real world economic reality so that everyone knows the true costs at every point in the venture.

i also believe it would not hurt to have a couple of good diy'ers on the panel too! if for no other reason but to provide information back to the public in plain speaking english and not political or economic double speak.  further i feel a good diy'er by his very nature is generally a pretty frugal guy capable of critical thought, something lacking in damn near every political appointee, and most everyone else on such panels.

i think study of the business model of entities like the "skunkworks" might shed some light on how to get things done, on time, on budget and that perform at or above expectations.

this idea that we have leaders who make appointments of cronies to positions of leadership of these panels is insane!  it rarely if ever works, generally when it does it is not because of the leadership but in spite of it.

i am thinking maybe congress (only because i can think of no other entity to do it) could vet and amass a group of perhaps a half dozen to then be considered by the president for selection of one to lead a panel. congress of course would have to assemble a group to make these selections and those congressman should be somewhat conversant on the subject matter at hand.

we have it backwards now, the president makes his appointment based on the appointee being a contributor or childhood friend or some other cronie, and then the congress has to approve the person based only on the fact they can find nothing wrong with him?  "he has no criminal history, therefore he is ok to be czar of the nuclear regulatory commission" ???

if we look at successful business models, we don't see many that succeed using that logic, most fail if they appoint childhood friends or family to positions of power within the company. the owners might better be served had they allowed someone like their banker, lawyer, pastor vet a few candidates to select one from to fill a key position. sort of like corporate world methodology, wherein the CEO makes his selection from a few candidates put forward by the board of directors.

no i am not saying all corporations are good, there are always exceptions, however
i would stay that corporate america is much more successful at getting things done that political america has ever demonstrated the ability to do.  at least more often than not.

just a bit of rambling from my corner as i see it.

bob g
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LowGear

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2012, 08:47:23 PM »
Sorry, but I cannot contain myself any longer.

If you folks don't believe that axes are being ground over at utterpower then I hope you purchased the fox news lifetime membership.  I give to public radio because I kind of understand their biases.  No bias = non organic.

The US spends more on the military than the rest of the world combined every year.  You're concerned about a few messily cruise missiles or drone missions disguised as solar programs?  Please.  Sure a cruise only costs about $600,000 but then there's postage and handling.  Can one of those fancy smancy drones really cost $4,000,000.  Who's checking those receipts?

We Americans usually get what we want.  We want cheap labor*, energy and healthcare.  Oh, and we want the government to pay for it.  If you've complained about your taxes then you've asked the government to borrow the money to pay for your goods and services. 

Casey

*  Unless it's us.  Then we want the best wages and benefits that any union has ever delivered to its membership.  The next time you hear about the "good old days" take a minute and check the statistics on percentage of union membership, CEO pay and the tax rate for the top 1 percent of the population.  Shouldn't the folks (Corporate States included as they are covered by the new constitution) that own 90% of the assets pay 90% of the taxes?
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cujet

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2012, 02:38:24 PM »
The political problem notwithstanding. There is no way alternative energy can supply most of our energy needs. It's not technically feasible. The best Solar, Wind, and Wave energy can achieve is "life support" quantities of energy. Those who don't understand this are bound to waste incredible sums of money on nonproductive energy.
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mobile_bob

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2012, 03:25:00 PM »
Casey

respectfully...

your point about cruise misseles and drones might work in this argument if they didn't work as advertised.

so far i think the "works as designed" rate on both is quite high, and the dud rate very low.

contrasted to these concentrated solar panels on trackers, the failure rate of the trackers is very high and the output of those panels is way below accepted levels by anyone's standards.

whether we spend money or worthwhile projects or not, i have little control over that, however i can express my right to free speech and ask questions when the money is spent on projects that clearly are not performing? most especially when there are countless examples of solar installation using the older technology that have since installation met the design criteria and continue to deliver what they were advertised to do.

is it wrong of George, me or anyone to question an installation that has to date not made but barely 60% of rated output?  when there are older installation of monocrystalline panels still making nearly 100% or rated power?

all i am saying is, maybe the concentrated panels are not ready for prime time? maybe instead of mulitmillion multi location systems using them, maybe if they want to promote the technology they ought to start with smaller test systems?

Amonix iirc is or was a 15yo company, they claimed to have been working on the 8th generation of their panel tracker system...  8 generations? really?  what does that work out to?  less than 2 years of testing per generation? likely far less when you consider development time for each generation.

something really stinks about all this, and i don't think it is my feet!

bob g
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(useful forums), utterpower.com for all sorts of diy info

LowGear

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2012, 07:41:06 PM »
Hey bob g,

I doubt if we will ever disagree about the incredible premisses of the constitution and it's all important amendments.  Even should that day arise it will be a point of disagreement and not an accusation of Right vs. Wrong - just a different interpretation.  This concept is one of the great things about the US.  That is until recently when free thinkers are somehow now villains.  (free thinker - a person what thinks differently than you)

I can't recall anyone projecting alternatives to fossil fuels supplying the total wants of the US population.  Perhaps it's just such a stupid forecast that I couldn't hear it.  I'm not a magic bullet kind of person. 

I'm in Hawaii on The Big Island.  KWHs are 44 cents.  About 30% of the electricity is renewable.  Not a bad number - the alternative energy contribution one.  The 44 cents a KWH is the highest in the nation.  We have a little over 6 KW of PV here on the farm.  Because of the outrageous prices we pull about $250 a month off of our bill.  Total investment is about $37,000.  (Yeah, I know that's over $6 a KWH.)  However, 250*12/37,000=8% or not bad.  This is where it gets interesting.  There is more than enough geothermal on the island to supply all of it's needs.  The private corporation that supplies the power does everything in it's power, and they gots lots, to prevent that scenario.  They even fought mom & pop generators like ours for years.  So here we are paying for their self serving investment in petroleum based generation.  Hence - my edge.

Thanks for the gentle reply as I did get on my soap box a bit.  We need to decide what's important to us as a community and work towards it.  OK - one impossible dream once in a while isn't completely wrong is it?

Cheers,

Casey

PS.  That's $37,000 before those disgusting grants, tax credits and write offs.  Sometimes I get a sick feeling in my gut when I think about the welfare programs we tax payers support - private and corporate.   ;)



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mike90045

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2012, 11:52:04 PM »
I believe the "grid" will have to adapt. In sunny areas, rooftop PV can supply a fair amount of power.   People may have to change their lifestyles, and shut down the air conditioning when the clouds shut down their PV.  The fossil fuel may have to be rationed and used for nighttime power, the thought of lead-acid battery banks in every garage scares me.

   Maybe each house will be it's own smart grid, to control appliances to respond to the local generation capability. But when the taxes and EPA starts hitting the generating plants and that cost reaches the consumer next year (2013), it's going to be a whole new ball game.

cujet

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Re: future of alternative energy?
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2012, 12:02:15 AM »
I believe the "grid" will have to adapt. In sunny areas, rooftop PV can supply a fair amount of power.   People may have to change their lifestyles, and shut down the air conditioning when the clouds shut down their PV.  The fossil fuel may have to be rationed and used for nighttime power, the thought of lead-acid battery banks in every garage scares me.

   Maybe each house will be it's own smart grid, to control appliances to respond to the local generation capability. But when the taxes and EPA starts hitting the generating plants and that cost reaches the consumer next year (2013), it's going to be a whole new ball game.

The reality is that scenario is 100% unacceptable to most Americans. There is no way any reasonably intelligent American will suffer needlessly. Just look at the situation in DC right now. Generators abuzz throughout the area. With a DEMAND to get power back ASAP. The unlimited potential of safe nuclear power exists. And it can provide all the power Americans could possibly use. Every day, every night, rain or shine.

I don't see a "doom and gloom" situation. I see a general movement towards natural gas fired powerplants and eventually nukes. And, NG is downright cheap.
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