Peak Oil revisited

[rpg52]

Just read an interesting article in the June 28 issue of New Scientist on peak oil titled "Final Warning".  Learned a bit I didn't know before.  For example:  the International Energy Agency says that global oil consumption stands a 87 million barrels.  Previously, when demand was lower, producers could increase by 3 million barrels and damp down disruptions in supply.  No slack in system anymore.

"Oil has shaped our civilization.  Without crud oil you'd have no cars, no shipping, no planes," says Gideon Samid, had of the Innovation Appraisal Group at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio.  In addition there are plastics, "You'd see no plastics, no bags, no toys, no cases for TVs, computers or radios.  It's absolutely everywhere."

The secret of oil's success is its portability and extraordinarily high energy density.  On barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of 46 US gallons of gasoline;  burn it and it will release more than 6 billion joules of heat energy, equivalent to the amount of energy expended by five agricultural laborers working 12-hour days non-stop for a year.

Twenty years ago there were 15 oilfields able to supply 1 million barrels a day, now there are only four.  The largest is the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia. 

There are a fleet of 4000 oil tankers, delivering 43 million barrels of oil per day.  There are "pinch points" through which the tankers have to travel, the most famous is the Strait of Hormuz, (between Iraq and Iran) through which 16,000 barrels travel per day.  Another is the Strait of Malacca, which 15,000 barrels travel daily.  One scenario is that terrorists hijack a liquid natural gas tanker, load it with explosives, and ram a oil tanker.  This could block a pinch point for months. 

In 2005, a simulation of an induced crisis was played out.  It was projected to start in Nigeria, the fifth largest supplier of the US.  Stopping of 600,000 barrels was matched with a cold spell in the US, which increased demand by 700,000 barrels/day. Then an attack on a Saudi natural gas processing plant.  The projected price rise was estimated to $295/barrel, even though the scenario was thought to be "relatively mild", compared to what is actually possible. 

I don't know what any of this means, just interesting speculation at this point.   
Ray

[Stan]

 I don't understand these people that can't fathom the simple principle of peak oil.  Oil, just like fresh water, or copper or any finite mineral is going to run out.  End of sentence.  As it starts to run out, we're in trouble, just like now!  Cause if it gets scarce enough, and hits $300 bbl, as one conservative, former peak oil scoffer has said, civilization as we know it stops.  That's the line in the sand (pun intended) where most big trucks can't run anymore, too expensive.  Planes can't fly any more, too expensive.  Just those 2 things alone will affect so many areas of our life, imagine it, no produce from far away! (like more than 100 miles).  I don't know about you guys but I like bananas. 
Stan

[Doug]

Durring the war oil stopped flowing in a lot of countries ( Sweden and Finland are great examples ).

Life didn't stop.....

[biobill]

  I find it curious that the folks who espouse "free markets" and and deregulation of everything, are now  looking for scapegoats for the higher oil prices. Oil companies, oil producing nations, speculators, etc have all come under fire yet it seems to me that oil prices are simply responding to the market forces of supply and demand. This was certainly predictable to anyone who was paying attention (GWB being the possible exception) but the folks in charge simply decided to do nothing on the demand side and made a gawdawful mess of the supply side. And they're still happily investing in subs to chase "terrorists" out of their caves while conservation and renewables get peanuts.
    A nation in denial, wondering how long the high prices will last. 
                             Bill

[Stan]

Doug, life won't stop, people will just have to drastically change their lifestyle.  In the 40's going "back" to wood heat, and walking to work, and eating only foods that are grown within walking distance or horsedrawn wagon distance from home wasn't that hard in Norway or Sweden.  How many people in downtown Sudbury today could survive like that, not to mention TO or Vancouver.  Sure some people converted 1930's cars to run on wood gas for short distances, I'd like to see someone convert Toyota truck today. 

How does anyone think that drastic power outages or water distribution systems would get fixed when they crap out,  if the power company or the city has gone broke and hasn't paid their employees for months.  Who are you gonna call?  Not many people in the East Coast of N. America are going to be able to live for several months without electricity. Winter??

Just the food shortages alone would precipitate riots and lawlessness at unprecedented levels.  I'm glad I'm living in a small town where everyone looks out for each other and cooperates.  We've got farms less than 5 miles from town and LOTS of wood within walking distance (well, wheelbarrow distance anyway).  There's enough deer wandering around town to feed us all for months!  We've got 7, 4 point bucks bedded down not 2 blocks from me as I am typing, and my nice light little 300 Savage lever action is all warmed up and ready to go.   All I need to do now is bury some small gold coins in the backyard. 

Seriously, I haven't done anything "survivalist" in the conventional sense of the word, (I've hunted for years)  just slightly altered our living style "just in case".
Stan

[mike90045]

  All I need to do now is bury some small gold coins in the backyard.

Do they grow ?  are they good eating ?

[Stan]

Hopefully!  No 
Stan

[Doug]

Price goes up, consumption will drop....

Its not dropping much yet because its not expensive enough yet lol.

As the price rises alternatives become ecconomicaly viable.

As prices rise lifestyles change

I see your buck and raise you a 300 pound black bear who chases me from the shack to my house ( no spring bea hunt what a great idea ).
A conservation officer lives up the road. The two if us chased hime around with a paint gun but the bear came back that night for an intamit moment with my BBQ . If he comes out screw the police and MNR or no firing of guns in city limits I'll put a cap in that bears ass.
And Stan I'll dry ice and send you some snaunsages.
So not worried about meat and wood myself.......

[Stan]

 I love bear meat, always have.  As I think I've posted before, I used to leave a strip of oats at the back of the "back 40" and every fall the black bears would come out of the woods and gorge on the oats.  On a nice saturday morning I'd go out and plug one and then pick him up with the front end loader and bring him in for hanging.  Nice grain fed bear, nothing better!  (only during hunting season and with all appropriate tags of course).
Stan

btw Doug...Maybe you've heard we've got a nitwit premier out here bound and determined to do Arnie S. one better and despite his being a radical right wing neo con, he's all of a sudden become green!  He doesn't think the price of gas has gone up enough and has brought in a gas tax of 2.4 cents per litre (that's 9cents per us gallon for our friends S. of the 49th) for the first year, more in the second, third etc..  So if a 50% increase in 6 months in the market price of gas isn't enough with more coming, why does he think another 2.4 cents is going to make a difference?  _{or is it really just a tax grab}

[rpg52]

I wish I loved bear meat, I have one that ate my chickens 3 times last year.  Tried again this year, but I had reinforced the coop, shredded some plywood, but didn't get the chickens.  I guess I'm really just not hungry enough, also have 8 deer hanging around.  Am planning to try some acorns this fall though.  Maybe that will stimulate my appetite for venison.   Planted more flour corn this year, not sure if it is justified yet.  Still seem to be eating too much -

Beyond that, I did drag an old moped out of the shed and get it going again.  Supposed to get 170 mpg - comes out to less than $0.05/mile in fuel costs at ~$6/gallon.   Repairs and insurance will greatly exceed the cost of fuel.  Kind of hard to haul much but great for getting the mail.  The new reality of expensive gas has made me really think before I consider driving.  Maybe the way it should be.
 
Ray

[Doug]

I saw this coming not to be smart ass or anything, thats why I bought the diesel Jetta.

At the risk of pissing a lot of people off here but if you bought a big heavy car without a good reason in the past 4 years what were you thinking.
It was obvious.
You were warned.

On that black day in 2000 when China stopped exporting gasoline because it no longer produced more than it needed the writing was on the wall.

My driving habbits have not changed because it still does not sting at the pumps yet, I burn maybe 30 dollars a week......

On the subject of wild game season well and stuff it in a snausage casing and I will probably eat it...

[Stan]

Ahhhh you should try it slow roasted on a pellet bbq/smoker.  Yummmmm
Stan

[mobile_bob]

lets take a look at the quandry from a different viewpoint, that being one of opportunity

going back to the days of Tucker, he got killed figuratively by the big 3 or 4 automakers at the time, had a good car and a very safe car to boot.

now the car companies are all in the toilet, near bankruptcy, and crying the blues. no one wants to do anything to help them so they are not much of a power
player anywhere like they used to be.... with that in mind...

we have so much litigation and government oversight to save us from ourselves that one cannot build a car without airbags, tons of safety bumpers, crumple zones, submitting a dozen or so cars for crash testing and all that crapolla, ... but

a 3 wheeler can be titled and licensed as a motorcycle, and out goes just about all the safety crap save for lights, turn signals and decent brakes.

what an opportunity!  seems to me that someone will build the equivalent to a tucker but with 3 wheels and now there is no big automaker that can
produce enough clout to crush the maker.

after all it is not a car, but a motorcycle,, even if it were enclosed like the isetta or messursmidt.

seems to me that a little 2 seater grocery getter that got 75+mpg is possible and would sell like hotcakes!  i would buy one!

quite frankly i don't want the government subidizing development of alternative power, at least up until there is truely a crisis at hand
like there was during ww2 and the manhattan project.

as long as there is no subsidy, big oil, big industry, and other mega concerns will not spend alot of effort to develop stuff and that leaves the door
wide open for the little guy to do it himself and if successful become a billionaire.

as energy cost go up the buying public will be acutely aware of what is going on, and will pay more attention.

if gas falls to 3 bucks a gallon all this will be forgotten in about a week, folks will let out a collective sigh of relief "awe back to normal"

yes the planets are aligned for the birth of another gates or jobs, except this time instead of puters it will be something related to alternative energy
or conservation.

now is the time, and the time has never been better in my opinion, never before has there been a free flow of information, never before have there been so much
surplus parts and equipment of all descriptions that can be had by the common man.

remember jobs and his buddy built the first apple in a garage on a piece of plywood as a chassis, and sold them!

the time is so right!

opportunity or collapse?

somebody is going to become the next billionaire just wait and see
maybe we will witness the birth of the first trillionaire?

bob g

[Doug]

I think you have hit the nail on the head Bob:

We have created a society that expects the car to be an industructable fortress of safety that carries everything and accelerates like rocket.
The discussion about the Japanese mini trucks shows just how many people would like a small go getter that has no equiv in our market place.
Rules, regualtions, industry and goverment have in many ways stunted the little guy from building that "go getter".
But convince mom its a good idea, you should have seen the fight over the Jetta.

We need more than just the little guy with an idea we need a change of thinking on a grand scale about transportation.

I still want a car made of wood that burns wood......

[rpg52]

So, I wonder if views like this will become more common in North America?

http://www.mopedarmy.com/photos/brand/42/10946/

Most of the rest of the world has been dealing with very expensive fuel for quite some time.  Maybe it is our turn?   
At the very least, it would seem likely that giant 4wd trucks in grocery store parking lots will be much rarer than in the recent past.
Personally I think small cars will continue to be unsafe when the dominant part of traffic consists of SUV's.  Sure, you can still get hit by a truck or bus, but at least the drivers of buses and trucks have more stringent licensing requirements.  Any idiot can drive a Hummer if he has enough $.  My $0.02.   
Ray