Author Topic: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics  (Read 93046 times)

okiezeke

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #75 on: May 14, 2007, 09:11:23 AM »
Thought Chavez had more sense than that.  500 million is small change for Conoco.
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rmchambers

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #76 on: May 14, 2007, 01:33:03 PM »
I think the hefty tax bill is just the start though.  Seems like Chavez (and Putin in Russia) is forcing all "foreign" oil companies operating on their turf to accept a minor share operating agreement instead of running the whole show.

If Conoco decides not to accept minority stakeholder then I'm sure Hugo will up the ante.  Unfortunately for conoco there's only so much they can do.  They are considering international arbitration but that only works if the other side plays by the same set of rules.

Should be interesting anyway.

Robert

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #77 on: May 15, 2007, 06:33:46 AM »
i remember reading somewhere that today almost 90% of the worlds oil reserves are controlled by national oil companies - and not by the big oil companies.  i have no problem with venezuela or any other country wanting to control its own national assets.  they do, however, have an obligation to pay compensation for the losses to the oil companies (you notice i did not mention loss of profit) caused by this change of direction.

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phaedrus

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #78 on: May 15, 2007, 02:32:32 PM »
Well said!  However I would point out that internal domestic political necessity may override that obligation in some cases. Further, past behavior of an Nth oil company in an Nth nation, for example bribes and kickbacks, may offset whatever compensation the company might otherwise be due. This then raises the matter of State vs Nation - for example Iraq is a State, it is not a nation. There are at least 3 nations within Iraq. If, for example, the Kurds wish to nationalize their oil who should pay, Iraq or the Kurds? Similarly, the the Navajo Tribe was to nationalize...

(happy to see the theme return to politics)
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aqmxv

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #79 on: May 15, 2007, 08:48:04 PM »
First:  Great discussion!  Sorry I've missed out on so much of this...

If we accept the number from Haganes of 90% of oil reserves owned by national oil companies as a given, I don't think this does much more than confirm that oil is likely to be a commodity market for the forseeable future.

Why?  Simple:  Oil is found in quantity in many different places in the world.  While there are definite application preferences for different kinds of crude, you can pretty much make any petrochemical out of any crude oil.

If commercial entities owned all the oil, they'd probably consolidate into a few megacorps (which the oil companies pretty much already have) and would then oligarchically agree to set the price for oil at so much a barrel.

Nations, of course, are lousy team players (witness the entertaining internal politics of the EU as an example).  Nationalism doesn't mix well with oligarchism.  As long as Hugo Chavez, King Abdullah, Vladimir Putin, Fidel Castro, Olusegun Obasanjo, and Stephen Harper all have say about a certain large chunk of available crude oil, you can rest reasonably assured that they're not going to manage to agree to a price and stick to it.  Somebody will get greedy, or grandstand for political purposes and undercut the others by a nickel or $5 and start a price war, as often happened in OPEC over the decades.

That said, it's an irrational commodity market.  Prices are set more by buyer fear than by logic.  A reliable way to get more money out of a barrel of oil is to keep the perceived reliability of major oil suppliers (like Nigeria and Venezuela) low.  It could also be said that the current adventure in Iraq mostly has served the purpose of keeping Iraq's oil reserves off the world market for a number of years to come.

What does all this mean?  Well, it means that it's smart to either a) take the Roman approach and set up actual commercial colonies (which is currently unfashionable), or b) find a way to reduce the consumption footprint of your nation and yourself.  The less oil you need, the less you are likely to be bothered by the unpredictability of the market.

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rbodell

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #80 on: May 16, 2007, 12:17:15 AM »

"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil"
             --Sheikh Zaki Yamani


How true it is.

I don't know, maybe I am just stupid, but as far as I am concerned, onething is going to happen. Oil is going to get so expensive we can't aford it and will start to buy electric, hydrogen and alternative fueled vehicles and making their own fuel and electricity until the oil companies decide to switch over to something else to sell. They are already looking into hydrogen and wind, we are buying cheaper to operate vehicles and making our own fuel, so maybe the time is close or starting.

Everybody complains that the oil companies are in cahoots to raise the price of oil. I don't know of anybody who has their own buisiness that has planned to run themselves out of buisiness. people complain the not enough is being done to develope alternative energy and fuels. It is a fact that the higer fuel prices go, the more alternative energy is developed.

What gets me is when the same people pushing alternative energy also want lower fuel prices. I mean like let's be honest here. If we woke up one morning and gasoline was suddenly back to 30 cents a gallon, how many of us would be going out to collect the days take of waste cooking oil from neighyborhood restraunts?


I am going to be honest with you, I am into the listers because I thnk they are interesting and I am pissed at the power company. My house is party solar because it is cheaper than what the power company charges. If it wasn't for the power company pissing me off, I would probably go with this as long as the fuel was free. Otherwise I wouldn't. Now I am all for living cheaper. I don't mind putting in a little time and energy. As far as I am concerned. let oil go up to $500 a barrel and gas to $300 a gallon. The sooner the better.


okiezeke

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #81 on: May 16, 2007, 01:03:36 AM »
$300/gal,
Probably will, but I hope not this year.  $3.00/gal is really starting to get folks' attention.  Some good will come of it, but will take some time to get swithced over to something more sustainable.  Mabe we should have invaded Brasil instead of Iraq??  Probably shouldnt say that, some idiot in DC will take me literally and do it.
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phaedrus

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #82 on: May 16, 2007, 01:27:39 AM »
No doubt the Easter Islander who cut down the last tree on his island had been propagandized by some chief to believe that they would find a substitute for wood.

Whether States control most of the oil, or it's controlled by trans-nationals, or by some incestuous combination of interests, there is no reason to build refineries to support a pumping rate that's not sustainable - hence the refinery difficulties at present. Longer term, the demand rate exceeds the pump rate. Ups and downs seem likely, but that's the trend and it is obviously going toward shortage and high prices.

Easter Island? Well, with no suitable fiber they could not fish anymore, and with no wood they couldn't build canoes anymore. They ate everything, including each other, and the few progeny that did not die out never recovered as a nation.

Obviously the timber, er, oil companies owe allegiance to money, to profit. Also obvious, States owe allegiance to their citizens. Given a declining oil supply these increasingly polar obligations come into conflict. Conflict between long-term and short term strategies. Conflict between corporations and the States that create the legal frame. Conflict between States and their peoples. Some States do a better job of serving the interests of their people than other States do - how else? Thus Chavez nationalizing the oil is a logical ploy - and permitting, for example, Conoco, to maximize profits comes at the expense of creating a somewhat nascent conflict between Conoco and various peoples.
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rbodell

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #83 on: May 16, 2007, 01:58:35 AM »
yeah until it become beneficial for Chavez to nationalize the oil industry as mexico did. Then conoco can come crawling back home.

haganes

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #84 on: May 16, 2007, 07:23:21 AM »
"The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil"
             --Sheikh Zaki Yamani

i worked for Sheikh Yamani in the late 70's.  he said many things - many were not printable.  but one thing i remember him saying is that everyone calculates the potential supply of oil based on the national oil companies' statements of reserves.  he told me that they were very incorrect singling out venzuela and mexico as two of the players drastically overstating their reserves.  on the other hand, the countries with the largest reserves significantly understated the reserves.  his point to me was that although the supply of oil was obviously limited, it was much bigger than the pundit's forecasts.

i believe sheik yamani was dismissed as the saudia oil minister because be was the sole voice demanding moderation of prices.  his position was that technology will find a way without oil - and the higher oil prices go, the more money will be used to find alternatives.

although we are centering on the issue of oil, we all should be reminded that all commodities work in the same way as oil.  each commodity is "controlled" by either a cartel or something else.  most commodities do not have any elasticity of supply.  they can only be produced within a narrow range of output.  this creates price spikes.

finally, WATER is the commodity which is almost free but may be the closest commodity to a real shortage due to pollution, climate change, and population densities.

regards,
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biobill

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #85 on: May 16, 2007, 01:53:31 PM »
My understanding was that the OPEC countries typically overstated their reserves because that is what the production quotas (limits) are based on. The more reserves you have the more you can sell per year. Is this incorrect?

Living where I do it's hard to imagine water as a scarce resource but things are much different elsewhere I suppose. The first time I saw bottled water I was shocked - more expensive than cheap beer - but it sells.

It sure doesn't look like the answers to Peak Oil are going to come from the top, at least in the USA. If "the American lifestyle is not negotiable" and is not sustainable either, then how does it end. Like a wino with an empty bottle? We need a serious 12 step program. Cuting consumption and waste has been equated with being "poor" by the marketing forces in this country. That needs to change to where efficiency is "smart and cool".

My compliments to the posters on this thread. A lot of well spoken, deep thinkers out there.      Bill
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Doug

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #86 on: May 16, 2007, 06:08:50 PM »
$300/gal,
  Mabe we should have invaded Brasil instead of Iraq??  Probably shouldnt say that, some idiot in DC will take me literally and do it.
Zeke

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phaedrus

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #87 on: May 17, 2007, 02:15:04 PM »
BBC has been doing reports on bio-fuel, with attention to political and economic changes and tensions that bio-fuel may be expected to create. Several video reports are at  http://search.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/search/results.pl?scope=all&tab=av&edition=d&q=biofuels

The May 13 one is particularly interesting.

 More interesting is a report by cooperative insurance society Ltd, aka "CIS". They were kind enough to email me a copy of their report, 48 pages. They are about to publish the report as hard copy - I got the 'lectronic version. This report, they said, is confidential and not to be copied or shared. (Why they were willing to send it to me is an open question...)  I'll read it tonight and see if anything particularly pithy is to be found.. Later,

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LowGear

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #88 on: May 17, 2007, 06:41:31 PM »
It seems all those BCC links are "403 Forbidden"???
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phaedrus

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Re: Tyson- Conoco/Phillips Biodiesel politics
« Reply #89 on: May 17, 2007, 08:33:55 PM »
 I just clicked on the url and got there- no trouble. Meantime I have read the report I posted about, from CIS, it deals primarily with the danger of irresponsible and/or non-logical bio fuel development and the advantage of sound engineering in the bio fuel arena. Anyway, here's the titles:

Beta Version The BBC Audio & Video search is a new service. More content will be added in the future.

 Caution urged over biofuels
The drive to switch over to biofuels could lead to rising food prices and deforestation, a report warns.

13 May 2007 Virgin orders 'green' Boeings
Sir Richard Branson talks about Virgin's order for 15 fuel-efficient jets and plans for a new biofuel.

24 Apr 2007 Denmark looks to biofuels
Denmark is a keen user of biofuels as part of its effort to tackle global warming.

21 Apr 2007
 Biofuel pushes food prices up
Corn prices are rising steadily as biofuel manufacturers buy increasing amounts of maize to use in their refineries.

23 Mar 2007 US and Brazil in bio-fuel deal
The United States and Brazil have signed an agreement to develop alternative fuel sources.

9 Mar 2007 Corn price at 10-year high
Increasing demand for products such as bio-fuels means the price of corn is at a 10-year high.

19 Jan 2007
 Bioenergy policy under fire
A group of MPs has criticised the government for not promoting organic energy sources.

18 Sep 2006 Biofuel pumps arrive in supermarkets
A new green fuel made from wheat and sugarbeet, goes on sale to motorists in the UK on Wednesday.

15 Mar 2006 French 'oil barons' embrace biofuels
The European Union is keen for member states to encourage the use of cars that run on biofuels.

17 Feb 2006
 Wheat-based fuel developed in UK
Five percent of petrol sold in the UK will have to come from renewable sources by 2010, under government targets.

5 Jan 2006 Bio-fuels help tackle climate change
Cleaner fuels made from agricultural products could become a common sight on petrol station forecourts.

1 Nov 2005 Scientists explore petrol alternatives
As motorists face rising oil fuel prices, alternative ways of powering a car are being examined.






 
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