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Author Topic: Global Warming mini-rant  (Read 26998 times)

rpg52

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Global Warming mini-rant
« on: October 23, 2006, 07:42:05 PM »
Hi,

Yeah, I know most of you think increasing carbon dioxide/global warming is a hoax - a plot by Al Gore and various other forces of evil to undermine capitalism, etc.  I have no intention of trying to convince you otherwise.  Indeed, I am willing to be convinced, but, as the inimitable Guy_F so often states, you can’t convince me by pulling numbers out of your ass, nor by flaming me LOUDLY and often.

I don’t claim to be an engineer, mechanic, computer whiz - just a farm boy with the benefit of some advanced training in how ecosystems work.  I know enough to detect BS in ppm though, and the evidence by real atmospheric scientists clearly shows CO2 levels rising, and ambient world temperatures rising.  I am surprised though, at the level of hostility/fear that any discussion of a possible link between the two brings out.  Is it possible it threatens some peoples way of life?  Can’t help that, maybe we should talk about it?

 I really do not believe that a thousand guys scattered across the (mostly) english-speaking world, sharing an interest in an English stationary diesel engine design will affect the political outcome of this debate, so feel no particular compunction to argue the point.  (Interestingly enough, the Governor of California, movie star strong-man Arnold Schwartznegger has managed to resuscitate his political future by signing a bill to make political changes over global warming.)

Yes, the global climate has always changed, yes carbon dioxide is a natural product that cycles into larger cycles, etc., etc.  But, like heavy metals, halogenated hydrocarbons, radioactive isotopes, etc., when 6 billion people dump their wastes, it is possible to overwhelm the natural cycles that clean water, air, food, etc., and cause human habitat to become unpleasant.  Yes I know that all of these problems have technical solutions, but, IMHO, humans are not wealthy enough or wise enough to apply them.  Regarding the CO2 issue, I personally believe the fix resides in Peak Oil, whatever happens, happens, and when hydrocarbons are expensive enough, we will quit dumping so much of the waste into the atmosphere.  Denying there is a problem doesn’t fix it though.

So, Guy_F, Fuddy Duddy, et al, I am not particularly interested in opinion, if you have some real data, collected by real scientists (not opinionated engineers, as much as I may respect your opinions about metallurgy, machining, wiring and other technical topics), I’d love to hear it.  If you have a counter-rant about the world-wide global warming conspiracy, I’ll pass, thank you.   I know some of you believe this to be a threat to capitalism, I do not, capitalism is just too big.  I do believe it will make some people very uncomfortable in the near future though, regardless of who is right about it.  It is, therefore, worth discussing.

Ray
PS Listeroid 6/1, 5 kW ST, Detroit Diesel 3-71, Belsaw sawmill, 12 kW ST head, '71 GMC 3/4 T, '79 GMC 1T, '59 IH T-340

Doug

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2006, 08:04:56 PM »
I don't think your ranting Ray:

In fact you've made a very clever and clear observation people don't like to talk about the way polution, C02 emmisions and mass consumption may be causing global climate change.

A lot of people like the idea even less if it means we must reduce our use of fossil fuel because we love our cars and lights.

In some very selfish ways I think I'd be better off to let the rest of the world crank up the heat. After all I live in Northern Ontario and a warmer summer isn't so bad is it? And a milder winter is nice isn't it?
Actualy it is....
Ice storms
Tornados
Invasive Insects killing the trees
Dry conditions
Forrest fires.
Even I don't win in a warmer world.

The solution seems obvious:
Bio mass fuel sources, wood burning car.
Conservation, walk to Tim Hortons for my cup of coffee
Behaviour changes, make coffee at home.
Live with less, give up coffee.......

All kidding a side about coffee people don't want to give up something for nothing. And thats what you ask people to do when you say we must reduce our foot print on the earth. On the other hand do nothing, consume and we leave nothing for our children.

Doug

I bought a small diesel car.
Cf lights in my home.

Baby steps....

 

Quinnf

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2006, 08:51:55 PM »
Well, since you're the one making the claim for the veracity of man-caused global warming, you should be the one to come with the incontrovertible evidence supporting your position.  And when you do, make sure you explain why it is that during the last billion years the earth has gone through no fewer than six periods of glaciation prior to man's appearing on the scene.  

What caused the advance of the glaciers?  There are several theories, but no one knows.  What caused them to retreat?  Again, several theories, but no one knows.  So to confidently proclaim that it's all mankind's fault is naive and sophomoric in the extreme unless you know the dynamics that were involved in the past glacial/interglacial events.  

Take a plane ride from Seattle to Fairbanks.  Make sure you're in a window seat and if it's a clear day you'll be treated to a spectacular view of thousands of glacial valleys, many of them more than a hundred miles long, most of them ending in a little glacier.  It's clear that the whole area was under ice some time ago.  And all that ice didn't melt since 1890.

The argument isn't whether we are in a warming period now.  That is clear and has been known for a long time.  What is in dispute is whether, and if so to what extent, mankind's activities influence climate on a global scale.  And the answer so far is that there are insufficient data to draw a firm conclusion.

Academicians tend to be liberals and to favor collectivist solutions.  They are hired by a committee, a committee decides what they are to teach or what projects they are to work on, and especially scientists in the universities and research institutes live or die by writing grants that must be peer reviewed prior to being approved by the grant committee, itself either a governmental or quasi-governmental entity like NASA/NOAA, NIH or the NSF which is staffed by like-minded people.  The best way to ensure that your grant will be approved is if it is spectacular; something that will grab headlines for the university or funding institution, thereby increasing their exposure, prestige and therefore, their funding.  Follow the money and the prestige.

So before you rush to condemn the skeptics based on conclusions hastily drawn on scanty evidence by people with questionable motives, examine the evidence for yourself and listen to what the naysayers have to say.  Then sit back and think about it a while, allow some time to go by, and then form an opinion.  But keep an open mind.

Quinn

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Tugger

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2006, 09:57:11 PM »
Its too dang cold here in the winter...and we seem to be getting more snow for longer periods...
Snow left last easter and was back again at thanksgiving....
Please lets start a golbal warming club....
Everyone run out and let off all your airisol cans and idle your vechicals overnight...
To hell with the grandkids...im cold NOW...

Cheers
Tug...

Doug

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2006, 10:28:15 PM »
You don't have believe in global warming to agree with one point....

We live in a world with a rate of change and pace of life that encourages us to work longer hours to earn more money, buy more stuff, toss it out because it doesn't last, or because it is designed to become obsolete in short order.

We are encouraged to buy style over substance and we expect to be judged by what we own or to judge others according to the size of the car swimming pool or house.

What is the real cost VS value of a shiny new fridge made with cheap nickel free stainless vs a 60 year old fridge with a compressor 50% larger than a modern unit. What I mean is  Do we actualy want things we only need to buy once. Or are we happier to buy something that costs us more with the illusion of durability and efficiency?

This has little to do with global warming and a lot more to do with making better use of resources and material.

Consider this for a moment:
Not many here realy care about the poor in other countries but lets for a moment. When we drive up the cost of materials to buy that disposable fridge every year we cheat them out of the materials they could use for simpler technology like say an indiginous African developed Crosbly Icy Ball or something.

We ourselves are victims of our own success. You shouldn't need to cars to live in an urban setting but cities are designed for the car not people. But we live well enough to afford two or three cars so we demand roads and cheap fuel.

And its all very wasteful and doesn't realy adress the point that with all this technology at our fingers and clever people creating products that we can't work less hours and live life that makes us happy.

 

rpg52

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2006, 11:51:16 PM »

Quinn
"Well, since you're the one making the claim for the veracity of man-caused global warming, you should be the one to come with the incontrovertible evidence supporting your position."

I didn't think I was making the claim for the veracity of man-caused global warming.  But, I haven't seen any "good" data refuting it either.  A couple examples, the testing site on the top of Mauna Loa, Hawaii has been measuring the CO2 concentration for decades, and has been measuring a consistant annual uptick for the same number of decades.  Same results at a facility run by one of the nordic countries (Denmark?, Sweden?, I forget) up in the Arctic.  Yeah, maybe they are just after "money and the prestige", but as you point out, they are peer reviewed.  Pretty hard to fake that kind of science for long, 'cause someone else hungry for research funds WILL refute it if they can, that's how science works.  It can't be that hard to measure CO2, you just have to find a site where it can be measured with confidence.

I have flown from Seattle to Anchorage, the presence of glaciers doesn't prove anything other than they are still there.  I have seen many photos of glacial retreat, collapsing Antarctic ice shelves, and have visited the glaciers in the southern Sierra Nevada - they are a lot tinier than they used to be.  More compelling to me is the advancing flowering period found in many places.  Flowering plants respond to the cumulative temperature over time.  If they make a mistake, they go extinct pretty quickly.  If they are flowering weeks before they used to 100 years ago, there must be a reason. 

" . . .to confidently proclaim that it's all mankind's fault is naive and sophomoric . . ."    I didn't think I was proclaiming that it was all Mankind's fault.  I was hoping I could   ". . . examine the evidence for yourself and listen to what the naysayers have to say."  Instead, you want me to defend a position I haven't yet taken.  I have kept an open mind, but I have yet to see any real data collected by a real scientist.  I assume you are one of the naysayers, please, please, submit some data so I can treat my open mind with it.  In it's absence, I will have to assume it doesn't exist.  Please prove me wrong.

Ray

PS Listeroid 6/1, 5 kW ST, Detroit Diesel 3-71, Belsaw sawmill, 12 kW ST head, '71 GMC 3/4 T, '79 GMC 1T, '59 IH T-340

Tom

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2006, 11:57:58 PM »
The primary source of global warming is indisputably the sun. We are receiving more energy from the sun that is why the ice caps on earth and mars are melting.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/07aug_southpole.htm
Tom
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Doug

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2006, 01:32:58 AM »
There is also the isue of glabal shading and the amount of dust and soot up in the atmospher caused by man is reducing the efects of global warming.

All things considered this shopuld be a wake up call to clean up our acts.

Maybe I have a different point of view on this because of where I live but grow up in the shadow of the worlds largest single acid rain emitter and you begin to connect the dots.

S02 - rain = dead lakes - scorched earth

You grow up in a mining town you know nothing lasts for ever, the pit will run out....
What goes up the Orford stack came down and ate the paint off you hood and left a blight on your vegitable patch. And when you work in the deep you know nothing you do here lasts forever, she just has to decide to take it back and you best hope not you with it....

What we're doing to the earth is exactly the same thing from acid rain to green house gasses. You can't take forever and expect nothing will ever change. The fact is you can change and it doesn't mean it has to complete end a way of life. Just this week the final commisioning of the new fluid bed roasters combined with the Inco Flash furnace technology means 85% of 1970 emmisions now end up in the acid plant, and then it sold as a by product ( this isn't the end of it unles my new masters CVRD have a different view. We plan to keep cutting and regreening the city ).

Now why can't other industries use simple common sence along with a little regulatory prodding to reduce all pollution and find ways to reduce green how gasses. It just makes sence from buisness point of you less liability and lower opperating costs by way of efficiency.

We as consumers can make a huge difference just by shopping for products that will last and leave a small foot print on the earth.

Or we can continue doing nothing.

rpg52

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2006, 02:17:41 AM »
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6369091

Pretty cool photos (no pun intended).  As pointed out above, these don't "prove" anything though.  The linkage between heating atmosphere and CO2 has not been proven, just suspiciously parallel to this skeptic. 

Ray
PS Listeroid 6/1, 5 kW ST, Detroit Diesel 3-71, Belsaw sawmill, 12 kW ST head, '71 GMC 3/4 T, '79 GMC 1T, '59 IH T-340

mobile_bob

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2006, 03:26:51 AM »
i'm just a greasy assed mechanic, and i got an opinion too!

the other day this topic was chatted about to some extent, and i posted about the volcano, which i could not remember the name of ,,, someone posted krakatoa (sp)

all of the scientists that go on about global warming agree that the one eruption from that volcano produced more acid rain, co and co2 emmissions, etc than all of mankind from the beginning of the industrial revolution to date, one volcano, one eruption!

this is not to say that we as humans have not contributed to rising co levels, but

the earth managed quite well to right itself of the volcano spitting crap into our atmosphere in pretty short order, so clearly there is more at play than what we are told.

also it might be fair to point out that until very recently co emmissions were not cleared by plant life as plants cannot use co, but rather co2, at least that was the popular thought amongest accademia. up until they found new plants that had mutated to be able to use the co instead of co2!  so mother nature adapts quite quickly to overcome problems.

surely we are going thru a warming cycle, and it will be followed by a cooling cycle as well, it has happened before and will happen again over and over.

short of mass neuclear detonation putting us into a neuclear winter, there is little man can do that the good old earth cannot scrub up in very short order, relatively speaking

part of that scrubbing up might very well be extinction of man in certain area's of the planet, or rather relocation of man because he can move unlike plants.

man can and has screwed up certain area's of the planet, and made it inhospitable, this has happened many times over the course of man's reign on the planet. The Nile region is a classic example, 2000 plus years ago that region was very furtile and produced quite well and is now desert, not because of climate shift but from irrigation canals that leached salt up from ancient sea beds into the top soil and literally ruining the farm ground. it took man about 1000 years to screw that area up, and will take a few thousand years for the good old earth to right it again.

Sun cycles have more to do with life on earth than anything man can and will do, over a very large world wide scale. we can mess up regions or relatively small area's but not anything on a global scale.

one the global scale the earth is a living ecosystem that is contantly changing, and we as humans will adapt, move or die (if we are too bull headed to move or adapt)

animals and plants go extinct for two obvious reasons, one they are not smart enough or cannot move, or the change is too quick for them to adapt thru evolution. humans can and will move, or will make there climate habitable thru whatever means are necessary.

as far as being incumbent on the opposition to provide proof, it is up to the one that makes the assertion to provide the proof, not the opposition job to disprove the assertion.

bob g
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haganes

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2006, 07:29:56 AM »
i live on the ocean, and it is definitely changing.  it is warmer, the storms are bigger, and the calm periods are longer lasting.

Is global warming caused by man or the cycles of the universe?  Nobody has proof of anything as even the experts do not agree.

My opinion is this cycle is not caused by man.

BUT 25 years ago i worked in the giant sandbox (saudi arabia), and we greened about 40 square miles.  the weather changed immediately.  it started raining almost daily.  the amount of irrigation necessary was greatly reduced.

Man has the power to minimize the effect of this cycle.

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rpg52

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2006, 07:05:55 PM »
After much searching for the Skeptic's point of view, I finially found this:

http://mitosyfraudes.8k.com/Warming.html

I won't pretend that I have personally come to any kind of conclusion yet.  It would seem that it should be less contentious and devisive than it is.  Water vapor either contributes ~76% or 95+% to the greenhouse effect, why isn't there any definitive answer?  Lots of invective thrown back and forth, particularly on the part of the Skeptics.  It seems that most people agree that CO2 levels have been rising, the disagreement is whether that means anything or not.  Is the warming real or just part of another cycle?  I couldn't find anything about Krakatoa and greenhouse gases.  Mostly the volcano effect seemed to be cooling because of all the dust thrown into the atmosphere.

So, while I puzzle over this for a while, I still retain the conviction(s) I had before I asked the question:
(1)  It seems really stupid to continue to build huge vehicles to drive to the store to pick up a loaf of bread.
(2)  Car companies (and companies in general) will continue to entice their customers to spend their money on wasteful crap.  (Lister(oids) being somewhat of an exception to that rule.)
(3)  It may be in our interest to try to wean ourselves from our hydrocarbon addiction.  Peak Oil may do it for us, but it may be a very uncomfortable process.  Is it appropriate for our Government(s) to encourage that process through taxation?  Will we start that process if Government doesn't?  This is the crux, I don't pretend to have an answer.  Pissing away our kid's future so we can be seen driving a Hummer today just doesn't seem like a viable plan IMHO.

Ray

PS Listeroid 6/1, 5 kW ST, Detroit Diesel 3-71, Belsaw sawmill, 12 kW ST head, '71 GMC 3/4 T, '79 GMC 1T, '59 IH T-340

mobile_bob

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2006, 07:41:01 PM »
"(1)  It seems really stupid to continue to build huge vehicles to drive to the store to pick up a loaf of bread. "

i couldnt agree more, and as soon as i am able to do so, i will fit a 195 changfa into a tiny ass car to do that job, and to hell with the government and the epa



"(2)  Car companies (and companies in general) will continue to entice their customers to spend their money on wasteful crap.  (Lister(oids) being somewhat of an exception to that rule.)"

agree here too, this is the way of the world it would seem, entice, dumb down, and work harder for baubles and trinkets, kinda reminds one of "hey kid, want some candy?"


"3)  It may be in our interest to try to wean ourselves from our hydrocarbon addiction.  Peak Oil may do it for us, but it may be a very uncomfortable process.  Is it appropriate for our Government(s) to encourage that process through taxation?  Will we start that process if Government doesn't?  This is the crux, I don't pretend to have an answer.  Pissing away our kid's future so we can be seen driving a Hummer today just doesn't seem like a viable plan IMHO."

i havent got the answer either, because i don't think there is one (with the exception of market forces, eg peak oil),  folks are going to continue to buy insanely large vehicles, that burn huge amounts of fuel until they can't afford to fill them. very few people want to drive tiny little cars, most especially when the little bastards can be so expensive!

i notice they are selling a little two seat car here in tacoma, that is all of about 6 feet bumper to bumper in length, looks to be about 6 ft tall as well and about the same width, so ugly it is cute if there is such a thing, gets 55 or so mpg, and holds two people i guess, somehow.
all for $27k!

i dunno maybe the yugo wasnt so bad after all  :)

bob g



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Quinnf

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2006, 09:45:06 PM »
Ray,

How much searching can it take?  You make it sound as if there isn't much information out there. Just Google global warming skeptic and you'll have 10 pages of links without even trying. 

I'd sure like to build a little kit car for commuting to work.  Something with about 20 HP.  Have to be diesel of course.  But good luck getting anything not made on an auto chassis registered in Gali-fornia as the Governator calls it.  It's a shame.  When I was a kid (early '60s) you used to see little old ladies driving around town (i.e. to the store/hairdresser/stationary store/post office and back) in 3-wheeled tiller-steered golf cart thingamabobs.  They'd do about 35 mph or so so they didn't hold up traffic too badly. 

Why car companies insist on putting close to 300 HP engines in compact sedans is beyond me.  I've always driven 4 cylinder engines with standard trannies.  Never even had electric windows.  Last car I bought (2001 Xterra) I had to really be firm with the dealer-droid about NOT wanting the bigger engine with all the options.  I saved myself about 10 kilobucks and about 5 mpg in so doing.  Sure miss my '79 diesel Rabbit.

Quinn





 
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rpg52

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Re: Global Warming mini-rant
« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2006, 10:33:28 PM »
Quinn,

Yeah, pages of stuff (not using global warming skeptic, that might make a difference), but most of it was frothing at the mouth rants without any hard supporting data.  Opinion is fine, but opinions are a dime a dozen on this topic.  I'm still puzzeled why the few real numbers are so different.  Too, much of the data on both sides is comparing apples to oranges, not really relevant from my point of view. 

Still waiting for someone to use the same protocols to measure the same data.  'Til then I'll just keep looking. 

Ray
PS Listeroid 6/1, 5 kW ST, Detroit Diesel 3-71, Belsaw sawmill, 12 kW ST head, '71 GMC 3/4 T, '79 GMC 1T, '59 IH T-340