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General Discussion / Peak Oil revisited
« on: July 02, 2008, 11:49:37 PM »
Just read an interesting article in the June 28 issue of New Scientist on peak oil titled "Final Warning". Learned a bit I didn't know before. For example: the International Energy Agency says that global oil consumption stands a 87 million barrels. Previously, when demand was lower, producers could increase by 3 million barrels and damp down disruptions in supply. No slack in system anymore.
"Oil has shaped our civilization. Without crud oil you'd have no cars, no shipping, no planes," says Gideon Samid, had of the Innovation Appraisal Group at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio. In addition there are plastics, "You'd see no plastics, no bags, no toys, no cases for TVs, computers or radios. It's absolutely everywhere."
The secret of oil's success is its portability and extraordinarily high energy density. On barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of 46 US gallons of gasoline; burn it and it will release more than 6 billion joules of heat energy, equivalent to the amount of energy expended by five agricultural laborers working 12-hour days non-stop for a year.
Twenty years ago there were 15 oilfields able to supply 1 million barrels a day, now there are only four. The largest is the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.
There are a fleet of 4000 oil tankers, delivering 43 million barrels of oil per day. There are "pinch points" through which the tankers have to travel, the most famous is the Strait of Hormuz, (between Iraq and Iran) through which 16,000 barrels travel per day. Another is the Strait of Malacca, which 15,000 barrels travel daily. One scenario is that terrorists hijack a liquid natural gas tanker, load it with explosives, and ram a oil tanker. This could block a pinch point for months.
In 2005, a simulation of an induced crisis was played out. It was projected to start in Nigeria, the fifth largest supplier of the US. Stopping of 600,000 barrels was matched with a cold spell in the US, which increased demand by 700,000 barrels/day. Then an attack on a Saudi natural gas processing plant. The projected price rise was estimated to $295/barrel, even though the scenario was thought to be "relatively mild", compared to what is actually possible.
I don't know what any of this means, just interesting speculation at this point.
Ray
"Oil has shaped our civilization. Without crud oil you'd have no cars, no shipping, no planes," says Gideon Samid, had of the Innovation Appraisal Group at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio. In addition there are plastics, "You'd see no plastics, no bags, no toys, no cases for TVs, computers or radios. It's absolutely everywhere."
The secret of oil's success is its portability and extraordinarily high energy density. On barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of 46 US gallons of gasoline; burn it and it will release more than 6 billion joules of heat energy, equivalent to the amount of energy expended by five agricultural laborers working 12-hour days non-stop for a year.
Twenty years ago there were 15 oilfields able to supply 1 million barrels a day, now there are only four. The largest is the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia.
There are a fleet of 4000 oil tankers, delivering 43 million barrels of oil per day. There are "pinch points" through which the tankers have to travel, the most famous is the Strait of Hormuz, (between Iraq and Iran) through which 16,000 barrels travel per day. Another is the Strait of Malacca, which 15,000 barrels travel daily. One scenario is that terrorists hijack a liquid natural gas tanker, load it with explosives, and ram a oil tanker. This could block a pinch point for months.
In 2005, a simulation of an induced crisis was played out. It was projected to start in Nigeria, the fifth largest supplier of the US. Stopping of 600,000 barrels was matched with a cold spell in the US, which increased demand by 700,000 barrels/day. Then an attack on a Saudi natural gas processing plant. The projected price rise was estimated to $295/barrel, even though the scenario was thought to be "relatively mild", compared to what is actually possible.
I don't know what any of this means, just interesting speculation at this point.
Ray