Lister Engine Forum

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: mikenash on August 05, 2019, 07:24:07 PM

Title: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 05, 2019, 07:24:07 PM
Hey Glort I thought you might be interested in this as an example of ownership costs for one of these

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhbD44jXffY
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 05, 2019, 11:36:03 PM

3 Battery Packs, 1 Motor.
Good job they were covered by warranty but does not say much about the long term viability units with lower miles but out of warranty.
Given the lag time with any Tesla model being released anywhere but the states, I would hate to think how long one of those things could be off the road outside the US waiting for a major part like a Battery pack or a motor.  I would Guess there are exactly Zero held in stock in OZ, NZ and a lot of other minor markets for them.

Tesla have taken the page down last time I looked but I did show here somewhere that the cost of power was more than one would pay here  and in a lot of other places for Fuel for a mid to large size Vehicle like a Camry or Holden/ Ford. That was on THEIR own numbers not mine. As usual the numbers were massaged with an amount of Free charging added in but once you used that up, the fact they showed themselves was that these things would be more expensive to run.
If you were after outright economy, there would be a stack of smaller Diesel and petrol cars that would leave it for dead.

Whenever the running cost thing comes up, people, especially those from the US immediately start carrying on about " Oil Changes" as if they were a weekly cost.  Ironic I see in the background of that clip a place that has "Oil changes $29.95 " emblazoned on a sign at the front of the building.
Stats from way back show the greater majority of vehicles are never serviced anywhere near the correct intervals anyway.

If there was one car I'd never pay money to own it would be a Tesla.
Last year I gave them 5 years before they went under. Down to 4 Now but I'm more confident in my prediction than before.

Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 06, 2019, 06:20:37 PM
Elon Fanboy Here!

Owning a part of a paradigm change will always have it's costs.  Diving the most advanced automobile in the world will also have costs.  Let's face it "Nice stuff costs more!" "The best is never cheap".

And you're not poisoning everyone you pass or your very safe passengers.  Is it true they're the safest production cars in the world?

The real innovation of the Tesla brand is their network updates.  They figure out a better way to do things on Tuesday and a couple of weeks later every unit that is compatible is updated rather than the owner being encouraged to buy the new and improved model or schedule a recall update appointment with the dealer.

Tesla's charging system will keep Tesla alive for many, many years.

I'm playing with a Fiat 500e and only dream of a Tesla.  My 4,000 miles a year on two different chunks of land make an expensive automobile out of any real question.  The Fiat is fast (up to 70 MPH) and drives really nice and is easy to drive as most small cars are without the giant hood to house the 19th century power supply.  I think there may be more moving parts in an ICE six than in an entire Tesla.

I'm wondering how the big battery experiment is going?  I hear they're going to save Australia from it's failure to plan for the 21st century.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 06, 2019, 09:07:09 PM
IMHO. What we Missing here - regardless of whether were fanboys or haters - is what this 450,000 mile maintenance cost record tells us.

He says $0.06 a mile all up. Maybe hes fudged a few numbers or maybe he hasnt?

But if that car is compared with a luxury car of comparable size with a petrol engine Id guess it would do about 30MPG. With gas at $2.05 here - thats $0.33  per mile for gas alone

Regardless of arguments about who paid for what - those are the numbers Id be focusing on
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: veggie on August 07, 2019, 01:51:34 AM

I like the "Idea" of an EV, but current calculations show that over the live of the vehicle they are more carbon intensive that conventional cars.
(When we factor in the mining of the rare earth metals that go into the motors and the disposal of the used batteries.)
As far as exhaust emissions, the EV's are just shifting the combustion away from the vehicle and over to a coal fired (or natural gas fired) generating facility. Over time the power grid will have to grow immensely to accommodate the power demand. Grid growth will demand a huge amount of metal mining (wire) and fossil fuels to to implement. In more remote places like some of the Hawaiian islands (Maui for example) the combustion process is shifted from gasoline (in the car) over to to the three large oil fired generators on the island.
Solar can charge cars too as long as the sun shines and the solar array in big enough.
Maybe the world needs a mix of all types of locomotion and power generation to lessen the load on any single source.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 07, 2019, 02:58:41 AM

Could not agree more with everything you said Veg.

The whole green and save the world thing is so tainted by lies and exaggerations by those so desperate to push their cult like religion on everyone else.
The Misconstrue the situation so badly rather than be truthful so the shortcomings cane be considered and dealt with.
It's all touted as wonderful and great but the behind the scenes realities are hidden, buried and ignored becase they don't promote the ideal the green cult  wants to portray.

80% of the worlds energy is Still FF and again, despite the lies and exaggerations, it will be for a LOOOONG time to come yet.  My neighbour just got back from a 5 week Holiday north and somewhat inland of Oz. He was telling me about the coal loading port he saw.  It handles up to 6 ships at a time and they are simultaneously loading coal in them all as fast as they can. Most of it is going to China and Japan.  He said he was surprised at first because we are all told coal is so dead but he said just to see what they are doing at that one port is incredible.  He was there 3 days and he said the least amount of ships he saw waiting in the bay was 24 and there weren't any there when they left that were there when they arrived.

To parrot the ignorance of " No tail pipe" with EV's is ridiculous. Point that out in discussions and the next rubbish one will be told is it moves the pollution from the cities to the country.  Ah yeah, but isn't this about saving the PLANET not just the citys?? Again the idea smacks of a selfish attitude in as much as I'm right jack, YOU deal with MY rubbish.

People also go on about batterys getting cheaper. I find that laughable and ignorant.  If one looks beyond the media hype, Current tech batteries in Lipo etc have already fallen all they are going to through production and scaling.  The resources to make them are limited, the places you can get them from even the mine owners say are good for about 5 years and the processing of the materials is a fithy, contaminating process that only back hole countries that are desperate for any buck they can get will allow. From what I read there are less than 5 places that will process the materials needed for batteries and motors at the present time with the present tech. Of course then you send it back to the first wold in FF burning ships and do all the manufacturing with all FF bar a token amount of RE thrown in the mix.  To make matters worse, this EV hysteria will have a lot of perfectly serviceable vehicles scrapped when they had good life left in them that would reduce the resource consumption and emissions of the new vehicle.

Add the limited supply of materials to a rapidly increasing demand and I'd like someone to explain to me the economic principals that they think will cause the price to fall.  If it were simply production volume, Lead acid car batteries would be given away by now but even they are going up, a lot, every time I buy one. Then there is the next great green fantasy, they are developing new tech batteries.  They have been for 100 effing years! Nothing new about that. Best they have come up with is where we are now with all the inherent problems that make those a short term bandaid at best.

A big thing I see is the lifetime of a vehicle.  There are loads of 10 Yo+ Vehicles on the road here. I think it was mike who was recently posting about Camrys and the huge mileage they would do. My daughters car is the youngest in our fleet and at 11 yo old still looks and drives like a new car. I need to throw a timing belt on the thing soon and it will be good for another 120K km with nothing more than regular services and probably a CV shaft boot and  some sway bar links which go on these cars. Big deal.
I'm very suspect on the longevity of these EV batterys ( and the linked vid above does nothing to undermine those doubts) and I can't see 10 YO Ev's being good for anything bar scrap one the packs go out.  I thought that this might just reduce range and they would still be OK for short hops but I have learned that this is not the case. The BMS in a lot of EV's will allow a certain amount of cell degradation and then it just switches the things off for safety among other reasons. 

Used packs will be , A, hard to find in good condition all being around the dame age, and, B, In huge demand so the prices won't be cheap.
As such there will be a LOT of useless EV's that are good for nothing bar scrap.

The cost of a battery pack and installing it in a 10 Yo EV will be completely non viable.  Look at the  quoted resale value of that Tesla in the vid and it's only 3 Yo. Sure the miles are high but aren't these things supposed to be so low maintence and cheap to run? That being the case, why isn't the thing still worth at least $50K not 15?
Batterys have a Shelf life as well as a cyclic life and once that pack is dead, the only thing the car might be good for is putting some lead acids in the back and running to the local shops and back.... except you won't be able to do that because the inbuilt computers won't allow it.

The idea of solar charging from home is also laughable in many instances. I have a stupid amount of panels on my roof and I can't cover my electrical needs for the house in winter. Sure, My house is all electric and draws more than most but again, I have 4+ times the amount of panels a standard modern ( let alone older)  setup has.  Many people have trouble Fitting 5/6 Kw on their roofs so it's far from just a matter of put more panels up. 

And this exemplifies exactly what I am saying about the green interests lying and shooting themselves in the foot making out the soloutions are all there.
We have the much touted idea you can charge an EV from Home. Clearly few are going to have the ability to power the home AND the ev even if it is at home during the day. Next widely spread green ideal is you can charge the car at night using cheap off peak.  That is fantasy as well because with their other ultimate goal of an all renewable grid, Off peak is never going to be at night when the main input of any RE around the world bar the few places that run on Hydro alone is not producing. Add to the fact the other reality and green motivation is to put more people in smaller homes and more apartments and there is nowhere to put rooftop PV but you know the majority of these homes will still have a vehicle.

Rather than the green motivated make out it's all fine and dandy and crapping on about things not being done fast enough, they need to be admitting this is a HUGE problem and there is no answer yet by a long shot.  They need to get their act together and look at all the conflicting problems with their ideas as I have just pointed out and see which way they actually want to go.  But they wont because we all know whether we want to admit it or not the whole Save the planet idea is a noble and worthwhle cause bastardised and turned into a scam for profit.

I keep reading about all these things that will happen by 2030 and just shake and hold my head. Most of these things haven't a hope in hell of being near reality for 50 years and beyond.

Sure EVs are being pushed and lied about. The car companies both established and those startups coming out the wood work will have the greatest money making opportunity in the history of vehicle manufacture. The gubbermints will push it because they get sales taxes and other revenue and win votes from the green faction for being seen to support the cause they believe in.
They know it will all turn out to be seen as a lie and fall on it's face but in the mean time, it's a great cash cow and later on the people profiteering now will be sitting on their well padded arses and it will be someone elses problem to spin doctor why it all went tits up and blame the man in the street for it all. 

Just playing with my own Pissant solar setup is a great insight into the difficulties of RE.  It's anything but simple and it sure as hell isn't going to be the great revolution  that happens in 10 years time as everyone makes out.




Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 07, 2019, 03:27:01 AM
IMHO. What we Missing here - regardless of whether were fanboys or haters - is what this 450,000 mile maintenance cost record tells us.

He says $0.06 a mile all up. Maybe hes fudged a few numbers or maybe he hasnt?
Regardless of arguments about who paid for what - those are the numbers Id be focusing on

Yes, I'd be focusing on them too.

First thing I see is an $80K car that is now worth $15K. 80-15/450K = .14C mile in depreciation alone. I would suggest most people would be Borrowing for a car of that price so there would be the difference in loan interest between what a none EV might cost, $30K? and the extra cost of the Tesla.
He also said maintence cost, you said fuel cost. There's a difference.  Last time I compared  Fuel cost for a tesla using THEIR own numbers, it worked out MORE exy for the EV.

Again the figures are skewed with maintence cost here.  The thing is only so cheap because it had MAJOR components replaced under warranty, Multiple Times. What's the cost going to be of replacing those things when it's out of warranty?  I'm sure given you proclivities for vehicles that last a long time and common sense for anyone spending that much on a car would want to look at it as a 10 Yr proposition.  3 battery packs and 1 Motor in 3 years so far? Good luck with the next 7 years is all I can say!!

Focusing on the cost of Maintenance while the thing is under warranty is Typical Tesla slight of hand, deception and Conning people.
The real figures to look at are Cost of OWNERSHIP which is the standard parameter of any vehicle assessment in this way.
On that score I would bet this thing would be horrific over 10 years and not all that flash to date so far either.

Rather than this vehicle be something to gloat about, To me it smacks of typical fan boy hyping up of what is in reality a LEMON!
If you bought a car 3 years ago and the thing went through 3 gearboxes and an engine even if it did have 600K Km on it, You would say it was a POS not something that didn't cost much in maintence because it was replaced ( Multiple times) under warranty!  ::)

I drove little Toyota Echos for a courier job some year back. All intensively around the City not highway miles like this thing has done which are far easier on any vehicle. The " Youngest" in that fleet of 7 vehicles had 420K km on it and the oldest had about 540K km. No doubt in my mind they would all run to 700K.  There was a few in other states the company ran that had 700 and 800K km on them so they were doing it.
I see Subaru's that are near 20 YO all the time with 450-500K km on them and that's a lot harder doing domestic use than driving something for hours non stop. I personally know of Hyundais that do country Blood runs and rack up 600Km+ a DAY and are going strong with no problems years later. That's why the organisations running them keep buying them.  For a while they were rotating them at 40K Km but got too much turning them over all the time so now have just gone to running them into the ground.... which is taking a LOT longer than anyone expected!  These are sub $20K cars here, about  $324.36 + tax  in the states.  :laugh:

Sorry, but I'm anything BUT impressed with that Tesla.  The fact they couldn't even put a decent battery pack in the thing the first 2 times and no guarantee the 3rd one will be any better says it all for me. I have not found age does cars much good either so even if the thing did the same miles over 10 or more years, I would think the problems had a greater likelihood of getting worse rather than better.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: BruceM on August 07, 2019, 04:57:09 AM
Tesla doesn't use rare earth magnets in their motors-  they are variable speed 3 phase induction motors; copper and steel.  That's been public knowledge since their introduction.
The cobalt in the batteries have been reduced substantially in the newer versions. 

I don't think Tesla is going away, and they are selling their drivetrains and batteries to other companies.  Their battery management hardware is presently the best in the world. 





Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: AdeV on August 07, 2019, 08:33:36 AM
People also go on about batterys getting cheaper. I find that laughable and ignorant. 

With all due respect - I vehemently disagree. Consider - battery technology was rapidly developed in the late C19th, and almost completely stalled in the early C20th with the rise and rise of the internal combustion engine. It's only in the late C20th that interest in batteries started to revive - mainly because of these newfangled mobile/cell phone things, and the advent of laptops. Battery research and technology is now at a fever pitch, and is only going to get bigger as the market grows. More potential sales $ = more research = better, smaller (size... bigger capacity), faster.

If one looks beyond the media hype, Current tech batteries in Lipo etc have already fallen all they are going to through production and scaling.  The resources to make them are limited,

Agreed - lithium has a finite lifetime as a battery tech. It's served us well, much like leaded petrol did in the early days of the petrol engine, and now it's time is drawing to an end. Alternative chemistries are being researched now; some (many) will prove to be impractical for one reason or another, but it only takes one or two to beat LiPO, and the job's done.

And yes, yes, before you say it: There's a massive difference between R&D/lab scale experiments, than a commercial quality offering, but the demand IS there now; the demand is ONLY going to get higher; and DEMAND is what will drive the R&D into commercialisation. It may not be the best tech that wins (see VHS vs. Betamax), but whatever tech comes through will be good enough.


The argument about generation and delivery capacity..... yeah, well, that's a whole different gether all to twist.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 07, 2019, 09:01:20 AM
What's Betamax and VHS grandad? lol  I can hear my kids now

PLus , of course, we have 85%+ renewable power here with our hydro and wind - so my viewpoint is biased because of that
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 07, 2019, 09:35:20 AM
but it only takes one or two to beat LiPO, and the job's done.

And yes, yes, before you say it:

Haha, No I wasn't thinking that, I was thinking you had a valid point.
Everything has to start in a lab somewhere.

As for the best tech, that's a very debatable scale.  Right now I think not too polluting and cheap would win out for a lot of things. If one could meet those parameters, then making something that could approach grid scale may be possible and that would be a HUGE leap forward in itself.
Weight isn't a factor nor is compact size.  Seems to me a waste of resources to be using Lithium in any flavour for stationary applications where even LA could be used.

Different technology's could do different jobs and be applied where they were appropriate.  Does not have to be a single technology.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 07, 2019, 10:34:06 AM

PLus , of course, we have 85%+ renewable power here with our hydro and wind - so my viewpoint is biased because of that

You also have an amount of what appears to be under utilised Geothermal power.  I think it could be used for a lot more than putting a hot tub in every Hotel in Rotorua  or powering just the stadium there.
When I went to the thermal park and saw the big lake and the steam shooting out the ground, First thought I had was WTF doesn't everyone have a  bore and turbine in their back yards?  I sure as heck would have!

While there are a few countries that have vast amounts of Hydro Like Norway that can supply all their power needs and those of neighbouring countries as well, they are very much in the minority. There are a lot of teslas there and it makes sense but for much of the rest of the world using FF..... not so much.
Here in Oz our natural Resource is coal. That dirty 4 letter word that the world owes so much too but has fallen from favour in preference to unreliables.
Powering a vehicle from Oil or coal is pretty much the same thing in reality. 

There was a big reason the world went from wind and Hydro power and had the industrial revolution, it was because thermal power offered all the power you wanted, when you wanted it and for as long as you wanted it. Somehow we seem to have forgotten that lesson and we now want to go back to the vagaries of the weather for our power.

I don't know what the NZ power grid is like, I read like many things there it could use a bit of a " Freshen Up" and a few Bob spent on it.
From what I read and know, Oz and a lot of other places are starting to struggle to meet demand for power now.  Once all these EV's start  getting significan't in number, I can see power prices going through the roof and being in short supply.
We already have Blackouts here because too many people want to pull 3 Kw extra from the grid on hot days. Wait till they all start wanting to do that every day.

It will be interesting to see how the EV thing goes.
So many manufacturers now are all going hell bent on it.  New models will be raining down in the next 2-3 years.
I certainly wouldn't entertain buying one for at least 5 years.  Being a new tech the price will have to drop just to meet wide scale affordability so the 50K cars now are likely to be $5K cars in 5 years time. If that.
Features will be improved, range and other things will get better and early vehicles will drop in value like a stone.

I see affordability as the biggest factor in EV uptake.
Right now the magic price barrier for batterys is $100 per KWH.  If they do crack some new tech and can bring it in at 50 or even $25 kwh, then the cost of the vehicles is likely to drop fast and the arse will fall out of resale prices on older models.
We can see this happening already with tesla Vehicles.  The model 3 being so much cheaper than The S and the X has not only eroded sales of those Vehicles new, in the US where they are plentiful, it's also hurt the resale price of those cars.  Why buy used when you can get new for the same or close to it? Add to that the 3 is new and the S and X are getting on for 10 Yo designs.  When they get round to Doing the Y in a couple of years ( given that it's supposed to be in production by this years end so won't be around for a while yet) I'd be certain it will erode the value of all 3 previous models.
Throw in the models by VW and the Koreans and probably China..... To me buying an EV in the next 5 years would be a very poor investment.

The latest bit of Fiction from musk is that  Tesla will be producing 1000 Solar roofs a week by the end of the year.
I have $1000 to put in an escrow account to bet any takers that is just more complete and utter bullshit that won't come near fruition.
It's a safe bet  from the grand master of Con men and Charletons given his perfect and untainted record of laughably failed predictions and excuses.
 
They haven't even got the factory Finished they are going to produce them in yet and this arse clown reckons they will be producing 1000 Roofs a week?
Couldn't produce enough for 1000 Doll houses let alone  actual homes.

Probably need to read the fine print with anything he says. Did he mean THIS year? Calendar year, financial year, lunar year, Romulan or Cardassian year?? End of the year 2021 would be about my bet.

Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mike90045 on August 07, 2019, 03:07:05 PM
Geothermal power.  They keep trying, but the dissolved minerals plug up the works very quickly.  Under heat and pressure, they stay in solution, but as you  extract energy (heat exchanges, direct to turbine) the works get gummed up.   The Geysers thermal plant near me in Northern Calif, is more of a way for the utility to play and say they are using green power, but it's often down for repair more than it's working, regardless what wikipedia says

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geysers



Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 07, 2019, 03:28:33 PM

Wow. The stupidity of mankind never ceases to amaze me.

Quote
Even with increasing injection rates over time, the rate of magnitude 3 earthquakes has remained relatively unchanged since the 1980s,[14] although the absolute number of earthquakes has increased significantly.[2]

So they know what they are doing is causing earthquakes but they keep doing it anyway.
If the earth shaking isn't telling you something, I don't know what would be.

I learned something at least. I thought Geo thermal was steam naturally occurring. I didn't realise they pumped water down to make steam.
Would seem to me the earth isn't too happy about it and one day it's going to bite them on the backside real hard.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 07, 2019, 06:38:51 PM
My Fiat 500e drives very nicely.  It's so wonderful to walk down to the car and it's fueling system is full every morning.  Okay, in the Pacific Northwest the Grand Coulee Dam is a socialist device but other than that it's really nice.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: BruceM on August 07, 2019, 07:55:34 PM
AdeV's point on battery investment and research is a good one.  Capitalism is a mixed blessing but when there is big money to be made in a growing global market, capital is deployed and much effort will ensue.  Alas, more on incremental improvements than basic research, but still a great deal of effort.

Sure would be great if the US gov. would get it's head out of the sand and commit to being part of the solution. That would stimulate capital investment in US firms and help develop the technology we need.

Flow batteries have my interest for longer term storage.  The iron based flow batteries are particularly interesting to me for stationary applications in that the materials and "electrolyte" are common and not toxic. 





Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 07, 2019, 08:27:42 PM
Re thermal energy in Rotorua

Last generation's houses there and nearby all had heat-exchanger loops going down into the thermal to heat houses, water etc

But over time the accumulated draw of them depleted the energy available to geysers etc in the tourist areas.  Tourism's our biggest single earner and, back then, Rotorua was a big part of it - so the individual heat-exchangers were banned
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 08, 2019, 05:58:02 AM
I dont have $100,000 - or even $1000 most days - but Im willing to wager the traditional Box of Beer that Tesla will be (a) alive and (b) profitable in four years
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 08, 2019, 07:23:47 AM
Elon has already changed the world.  Electric transportation and rocket innovation will not be the same.  Let's not forget the Model S that started this thread had over 400,000 miles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyZOLMeMYnI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyZOLMeMYnI)

The storage system I like is the stacked weights that are raised to store the energy and let down for recovery.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 08, 2019, 09:32:59 AM
Casey, the trouble with this is that it's like arguing with strangers on the internet over issues

(In fact . . . .)

That's because folks tend to have a viewpoint/prejudice/preconception to which they are attached and they're likely to dismiss evidence that doesn't support their viewpoint and embrace evidence that does (we're using "evidence" loosely here

Thus, say, our reactionary Australian colleague - should he watch your video - is quite likely mentally formulating a counter-argument even as the two bald gentlemen are speaking (in the same way in which when the Jehova's Witnesses come to your door, if you make the mistake of engaging them in conversation - as you are speaking, they're not actually listening to you, they're just thinking of what they're gonna say next)

Whereas my liberal (soft, commie, pinko, idealistic) Kiwi self already has a mindset that aligns with what those two blokes are saying and so I think they - and you - are making a lot of sense

The old jokes about this process resulting in heat rather than shedding light, or about how politicians use statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost (more for support than for illumination) apply here  IMHO
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 08, 2019, 04:53:00 PM
I can only lead our brothers and sisters to the water.  If they think it is for drinking or washing then how am I to convince them that redemption is only one splash away?

The challenge is to move the lamp post a few feet from where it was this morning.

I suspect that if we all saw a serious, for real pinko, commie, lefty that we pseudo progressives would be the most anxious.  One of my favorite friends could do a two part harmony with the conservative many so I had to grin whilst reading your dose of reality.  Hence my flirtation with heresy in the first paragraph.

Aloha,
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 08, 2019, 10:36:12 PM
I told you I am a Tesla Fan Boy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGA5UsTLWt8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGA5UsTLWt8)
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 09, 2019, 02:47:30 AM
0 - 100 Ks in 1.9 seconds. Whats not to enjoy
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: BruceM on August 09, 2019, 04:44:57 AM
I'm more interested in something much more modest and lightweight and with a range of 70 miles... if only I could manage a couple hours in one without getting wrecked.  It's about 26 miles to the nearest grocery store.  A bit over 30 miles to a decent one.

I'm interested in pancake motors; no rotating ferrous materials/magnets so by one ME's report, very low stray field.  I'm not familiar with the non-brushed pancake configuration yet.



Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: veggie on August 09, 2019, 04:51:34 PM
I am a fan of electric vehicles and I like the idea of a centrally managed clean power plant (like natural gas).
Where I have issue is with most of the people I chat with think that the world atmospheric issues will quickly be solved if we were to switch to electric cars, wind turbines, and solar panels. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The massive amounts of raw materials needed to make an automobile do not change much between Internal Combustion and electric machines.
Engine components are replaced my semiconductors made in chip factories requiring exotic mined minerals and power hungry climate controlled robotics environments. Regardless of being EV or IC, billions of gallons of diesel and terrawatts of dirty electricity are used every year to mine the steel, run the factories, deliver the vehicles, make the tires,...etc..etc
Our current civilization is now built on long distance travel (even to get a pint of milk) and all the EV does is change a small part of the mode of travel.
The rest of the mega-infastructure remains and would take 100 years to reverse if there were sufficient collective and cooperative desire to reverse it.
The argument that EV's are a key step to controlling global warming does not hold water with me.
CO2 is only 4% of our total atmosphere and cannot possibly contribute enough to heat it up the way climate alarmists are claiming.
Secondly C02 has a logarithmic heat property where by doubling the amount of C02 only results in 1/2 the gain in greenhouse heating capability.
If doubling world C02 from 200 ppm to 400 ppm creates a rise of 1 deg C, then a another 1 deg C increase would take a doubling again from 400 ppm to 800 ppm. And 1 more degree would take a doubling from 800 ppm to 1600 ppm, and so on.
This is a known fact by the majority of climate scientists and it's beginning to create a huge rift between the alarmists and those who disagree that man made  C02 is causing the warming.
I apologize in advance for my C02 rant and I remain open to any friendly scientific debate on my current thinking.

Back to EV's...
It's just another form of transport that will do little to help the planet. HOWEVER...it may revitalize the auto industry ! Money, jobs, taxes.
And yes, as a "spanner head" I look forward to having a small electric car soon that I can charge with my Listeroid or my solar panels as well as the local grid which is natural gas powered.
But I don't think I will be helping the planet much. The biggest help would be to not buy another car at all... of any kind.
IMHO the bigger problems which need attention are ocean over fishing, waste chemical pollution, and mega factory animal farming.

Phew !
Sorry


Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: veggie on August 09, 2019, 04:59:56 PM
I'm more interested in something much more modest and lightweight and with a range of 70 miles... if only I could manage a couple hours in one without getting wrecked.  It's about 26 miles to the nearest grocery store.  A bit over 30 miles to a decent one.

I'm interested in pancake motors; no rotating ferrous materials/magnets so by one ME's report, very low stray field.  I'm not familiar with the non-brushed pancake configuration yet.

Re: Pancakes

I have always been intrigued by pancake generators and axial flux generators. I don't have the ability to build one into the flywheel of my Lister like this fellow did. But I do like the idea of it being integral to the engine with no belts and pulleys.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyJYdHzwsy4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyJYdHzwsy4)
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: veggie on August 09, 2019, 07:31:12 PM
I told you I am a Tesla Fan Boy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGA5UsTLWt8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGA5UsTLWt8)

Casey, help me out here...

No disrespect intended ...
These points about being able to play retro video games and connect to the web for software updates all seem like "fluff" to me.
... And 0 to 100 in 1.9 seconds should be a concerning issue to the ecologically minded.
To achieve that kind of acceleration with that weight of car takes around 450HP.
That's 450HP of electricity instantly drained from the battery which must now be charged (probably by a coal fired generating plant if you live in the US, or maybe Nuclear) earlier than it would if the car were limited to say 180HP.
So it's really no different that dropping a 400HP internal combustion engine into a new Ford Mustang and putting it on the market.

As I said earlier, I like EV's, I just don't see them as a solution to the real issues that face us.
What factor am I missing in the EV pardigm?
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: BruceM on August 09, 2019, 08:44:39 PM
I can only agree that renewables are only a small part of the puzzle...and I wish we'd get back on where we left off around 1972 with the vastly safer, non-pressurized liquid fluoride thorium reactor (LFTR) at Oak Ridge.  It's a proven and highly efficient design that could use the waste from rare earth mining tailings, so no new mining would be needed for hundreds of years.  The amount of radioactive waste is also a tiny fraction of the fast breeder reactors, and it's nearly impossible to get bomb material from them. We are using the first successful design for nuclear submarines for our power plants 50 years later, and ignored all the safety warnings in our lust for nuclear weapons.  Pressurized water, fast breeder reactors are nuts for civilian use.

The notion that since CO2 is only 4% thus can't be the problem makes me think you benefit from reading more on the subject that is peer reviewed science.  There's this thing called the Dunning Kruger effect...






Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 09, 2019, 09:21:21 PM
I'm more interested in something much more modest and lightweight and with a range of 70 miles... if only I could manage a couple hours in one without getting wrecked.  It's about 26 miles to the nearest grocery store.  A bit over 30 miles to a decent one.

I'm interested in pancake motors; no rotating ferrous materials/magnets so by one ME's report, very low stray field.  I'm not familiar with the non-brushed pancake configuration yet.

Re: Pancakes

I have always been intrigued by pancake generators and axial flux generators. I don't have the ability to build one into the flywheel of my Lister like this fellow did. But I do like the idea of it being integral to the engine with no belts and pulleys.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyJYdHzwsy4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyJYdHzwsy4)

That is one smart, rich chap.  Look at all the beautiful Outback gear

Re the environment etc, democracy is its own worst enemy in that the fear of "losing the next election" is what drives politicians/decision makers (See Winston Churchill for options, sadly)

As a rural dweller who travels widely in our small country I have watched our primary dairy industry wreck big chunks of our environment while our "leaders" stood and applauded the contribution that industry makes to our economy.  Who can blame them?  Voters will throw them off the Treasury Benches if they do anything that threatens our standard of living

The poor old planet (IMHO) needs less people using/wasting less stuff.  The debate over what % of the solution RVs might be, or what contribution clean nuclear might make, or how much of the available water the Dairy Industry should be allowed to use - these (again IMHO) will all be sideshows until we as a species adopt a "stewardship" viewpoint rather than a "consumer" one

I wonder what the average age of the folks on this forum is?  And, even though we have diverse viewpoints, perhaps, as a group, we might be characterised as "thoughtful"?  But I doubt many of us are influential

Our children and grandchildren will have to deal with the mess we started somewhere in the consumer-driven growth after WW2 when the world seemed young & its bounties endless
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 10, 2019, 12:46:38 AM

It's just another form of transport that will do little to help the planet.

Careful Veggie,  You make a lot of sense there and the WORST thing you can do these days is tell the truth and point out facts that the snivelling  cowards that have to group together to lambaste others with a different Viewpoint won't like and sure as heck don't have the smarts to come up with other viewpoints themselves.  They think they are so smart and well informed but then repeatedly tell us they are lacking the intelligence and comprehension to read more than a few paragraphs of text! Typical.

Also makes me wonder why these people that are so fanatical about these things and champion the company, the product and the founder with such cult like worship, don't actually support the cause they champion by actually putting their money where their mouths are and OWNING one? Some hypocrites champion EV's and call those that don't support them names then at other times Champion old IC vehicles that the emission controls no doubt have stopped working years ago on. Hypocrisy at it's finest!
I'll bet there are a load of thin and transparent BS excuses though.  Do as I say, not as I do.  ::)


Quote
No disrespect intended ...
These points about being able to play retro video games and connect to the web for software updates all seem like "fluff" to me.

Seems downright Childish  to me! No doubt adds a danger factor in distraction as well.
I would be outright embarrassed to have a car that had these idiotic features! I saw a vid a while ago where you can get a tesla to play music and flash the lights and flap the doors. Yeah, real breakthrough save the world tech that is.  ::)
Gives a good insight into the IQ of people that would think a vehicle and the creators behind it were so wonderful to come up with BS like that and the mental maturity of their target market these things are aimed at.

Meanwhile while they are paying people to come up with this crap, they can't put reliable battery packs in the things and basic accident repairs or maintenance  which they DO require , is backed up for months. 

Your point with the speed of the things is also spot on. Before you can engage the high speed mode the battery pack has to be warmed up which of course wastes more energy.  It's also know that this places great stress on the motors and battery and is in fact recorded in the vehicle logs how many hard launches the thing has done . I believe there is a recommended limit as to how many times you are supposed to launch these things and warnings are triggered each time you do it and when you do it too much.

In reality it's Just more Hypocrisy from the virtue signalling Hypocrites that want to make out they are so concerned for the planet but then prove the complete opposite through their actions and beliefs.
Thankfully the mainstream of manufacturers have more sense and responsibility than to keep chasing down that road and are going for more sensible but adequate outputs and smaller motors and using the energy the vehicles have for range and practicality rather than an antidote for those with small penis - big ego syndrome.

You are not missing anything with EV's.  The only problem is you are seeing the big picture waay too clearly than most supporters would like.
I have said all along their greatest advantage is to be the greatest cash cow the auto industry has ever seen since it's creation and anyone that has their feet on the ground rather than their heads up their nether regions could see that.

Everyone wants a cleaner world but the difference is some see things as the farce and con job they are and others are stupid enough to swallow every bit of marketing hype they read and never look beyond that for the real truth of how worthwhile or not something actually is. There is a term for that self deception as well which is what those that use a noble cause to lie to people in the pursuit of profit rely on.

Here is an insight to the benifit to the world EVs will bring:

(https://s3.amazonaws.com/jo.nova/graph/energy/renewables/solar/diesel-generator-ev-charger-m.jpg)

Yes, that is a DIESEL generator for recharging EV's.
I can only imagine the round trip efficency of going from chemical energy to mechanical energy to electrical energy, battery charging chemical energy losses and back to electromechanical energy again.
Brilliant idea!  ::)

Of course it was a LOT cheaper than their Idea of using solar. That was going to cost about $250K to set up and would be able to charge all of 2, yes, count them, 2 Teslas a day..... Given that the weather was fine and sunny or you could easily be down to 1 a week in crappy weather or 1 every few days in the winter fall off. But they always give you the best possible scenario not the far less impressive real world one.

Lets save the world and put these things all around so the EV brigade won't wet the bed with their range anxiety while they do so much saving the planet. 


Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 10, 2019, 01:42:15 AM
Quote
I have always been intrigued by pancake generators and axial flux generators. I don't have the ability to build one into the flywheel of my Lister like this fellow did.

There was a stage there when a lot of people seemed to be building Axial Flux alternators... Including me. Most were doing them for wind turbines.
Some were scratch Built and quite powerful being for up to 10 KW I have seen on the net.
 I built a 7 phase type out of an old washing machine motor. Mate who worked at an aircraft factory designed some blades for it out of carbon fibre and cooked them up as a test for a new material they were working with.  Things cost thousands but they had to do something to do the test so an air foil  shape was was a good Idea to the bosses.
They had a computer he was going to use to make the blades " perfect" but that was being used for some time ( Only 1?)  so he "freehanded " them on a cad program and hoped for the best.  After they were done he ran his design through the computer and it came out with just over 1% efficiency error which my mate was stoked about.

Even with these near perfect blades the thing wasn't much of a success where he was as the site we put it up was bad for wind for a start and far too low anyway.  We did put the alternator on a small engine for a while to play with and it certainly made power OK but being on grid was nothing more than a toy.
We said at the time it would be good for an off grid engine ( I set it up for 28V from memory, was a long time back now!) or if one had a good Hydro setup which we both would have loved to have a property to play with that.

There are certain washing machine Motors, Fisher & Paykel and I believe another brand in the states that uses their same Permanent magnet Motors.
You can just re configure the coils for different outputs and voltages etc.  Depending on the series of motor one uses ( the windings are different wire gauges)  You can get around 2K out of one of these motors.  Wouldn't be hard to put a couple of Motors on the one shaft and drive them with a Lister or any other engine and they make good power at low revs.

The Neighbour gave me what I think is the now popular 60 Series motor last summer.  Love these things. You can hold the 3 phase wires, give the thing a spin and feel like your arm is going to get blown off.  Re configuring the phases lets you bring the voltage down to something useable for battery Charging although I spose you could probably use them as is with a GTI and a rectifier for back feeding.

Wind has seen a significant reduction in interest with the availability of far cheaper solar so turbines and axial Flux generators have fallen from favour but are still a good tech for engine coupling.
Given how hard Gen heads are to come by here, maybe Bob and I ought to look at them more closely and see if they might suit our particular proclivities.
Might take quite a setup to pull 10KW+ out of them as I would like to get. 

Given the size of Lister Flywheels, I have always wondered about bonding a flywheel with opposing magnets and just using say 3 Coils around the perimeter as a generator. As long as the magnets were north/ south and the number and spacing was correct, I don't see why such a setup couldn't deliver whatever power the engine was capeable of.  Would be a high frequency from the output but when rectified for battery charging that wouldn't matter at all. Would only require the winding of 3 coils and the wire gauge could be sized for higher amps to take advantage of the high number of magnet passes.  Alternately, more coils could be used with fewer magnets. Pick the cost and output profile one wanted and go from there.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: BruceM on August 10, 2019, 02:57:12 AM
I'd forgotten about the pancake type motor as a popular wind turbine due to lack of cogging.  Not much power to be had at low winds where cogging is a concern but at least something.

Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: glort on August 10, 2019, 09:08:56 AM

You can grind the edges of the stators to a round bevelled shape Bruce.
The extra gap allows the magnets in the rotor to transition more smoothly and reduces the Cogging effect some of the alternators of this type do have.

I hate wind, I truly despise it. 
The last few days have been blowing a gale here almost non stop. I expected it this time of year and thought I was prepared for it but there is nothing you can do to combat it.
It infuriates me when I screw/ bolt something down to allow for wind and it tears the fastener head through the metal or breaks it. I have lost plants I nursed all through winter and were starting to come on with spring just weeks away . I literally pumped $$ worth of power into them ( more more correctly heated the ground they were in) and staked them up only to have the plant be snapped in the middle though the force of the wind on it's leaves.

I said to the Mrs this morning when I was picking up some panels I had tied down and snapped the rope I secured them to the shed with, that the next place we go to I'll research to have the least wind possible.
She found a bucket round the front this afternoon. It had been on the back verandah yesterday where I filled it full for watering the plants.  How the FK does a full bucket of water blow over? I screwed the cats feed tray to 2  20x20 CM great chunks of wood as I was getting tired of searching for that every morning and evening to feed them. Wondering if I should have just screwed it direct to the outdoor table?

Surprisingly, all my ground mount solar arrays have withstood the onslaught bar one panel that has slipped down due again to the tek screws I fastened it with to the support beam  I screwed it to ripping through the frame. the force that would take is just ridiculous.  Surprised the whole things haven't moved but clearly boring those 2" steel post holes  a meter into the ground and the 3x4" cross beam was not a waste of time. Don't know what else I can do to stop the things tearing away other than spot weld the things.

I'd make a VAWT using panels for sails if I wasn't so sure the whole dam thing would be blown away even if I did fasten it to a cubic meter of concrete with 6x 25 MM bolts or break the hus assembly from a car i'd use as a bearing!

I stood in the back yard yesterday and could see the furthermost trees I can see blowing clearly in 3 different directions at the same time.
How the heck does that work?? I'm also about half way down the hill on 2 slopes which I curse when there is heavy rain and we get all the water running through but looking at those trees yesterday, I think it does afford us some shelter and reduces the wind strength those not  to too far away get hit with.

A wind turbine here wouldn't last one good blow and the rest of the time it would do absolutely nothing.
I'll stick with my solar panels direct on my roof with no railing for the wind to get under and tear the damn things off.

Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: veggie on August 10, 2019, 03:53:12 PM
"I stood in the back yard yesterday and could see the furthermost trees I can see blowing clearly in 3 different directions at the same time.
How the heck does that work??"

I'm guessing you were at the boundary of two large wind fronts each in a different direction (also the cause of tornado rotation), or you were in a large downdraft area where cool air is rapidly displacing warmer ground air. In any case, it sounds like it was very windy  ;D
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: BruceM on August 10, 2019, 03:56:36 PM
Your winds sound like ours.  We have what are called dust devils here in the warmer months;  tiny thermally driven tornadoes that can start suddenly, move erratically, throw stuff in all directions, then disappear. One time at my last home one picked up an upside down canoe nestled against the lee of the  house, spun it around and stuffed one end through the steel siding into my portland cement plaster on steel lathe wall.   Our spring winds are ferocious. My last home was on a ridge, with great views and gusts to 100mph each spring.  My current home is in a hollow, with hills on three sides, facing rock formations on the north.  I still have a D-ring in the concrete patio on the south, with wrought iron table and chairs tied down, though they are nestled between hill and house south wall.  Winds are 10-15 mph less in the hollow, which helps greatly.

Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mike90045 on August 10, 2019, 04:37:53 PM
you take your axial flux gen head and wrap it around the flywheels:
http://www.windsine.org/2017/02/07/listeroid-backup-generator/

build links are at archive.org
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 10, 2019, 07:50:34 PM
Dear Group,

I often remind my brothers and sisters:
     Psychological projection is a defense mechanism people subconsciously employ in order to cope with difficult feelings or emotions. Psychological projection involves projecting undesirable feelings or emotions onto someone else, rather than admitting to or dealing with the unwanted feelings.Nov 15, 2017
Psychological Projection: Dealing With Undesirable Emotions
https://www.everydayhealth.com/.../psychological-projection-dealing-with-undesirable-e...  (Links don't C&P well)

The conservative mind and the need to villainize the messenger.  It's fun to witness and sends up the flag of caution.  I also like the ratio of ill thoughts to the threat of the message.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 10, 2019, 08:23:03 PM
Aloha BruceM,

Thank you for the kind words.  I'm far less concerned about being disrespected than snorting diesel smoke while caught in traffic.  While my Fiat almost stops while stopped the busses do not.

I don't have a proper answer to the wants of children.  I don't know why so many cars focus on useless acceleration.  I bought my Bosch powered Fiat because it seemed rational.  Even it jumps out from under me.  Oh, Tesla has re-specked the new roadster to 2.1 seconds to about 60 MPH.  Far more sane huh?

The video games only work when the Teslas is motionless.  The games do not use the accelerator pedal.  Do you have a car that has a radio?  Maps?

Regardless if we're frying eggs or accelerating full throttle in a Tesla roadster the grid needs cleaning.  This is not a reflection of the electric car but rather on the grid.  Please, let's not assume fossil fuel production is without sin.  It's a nasty dirty business with many victims.  And like other sellers of addictive substances they will suppress the truth via lies, conspiracy and denial.  My understanding is that there is 4 KW in every gallon of gasoline.

Another thesis is that large scale energy programs can be more friendly than small ones.  Now who does that serve?

Wouldn't it be neat if we lived in a world where everything is true and good.  If you find that world please email me.  The point you're missing with EVs is that they are created by homo sapiens.  And you know about the infestation they are bringing to the planet.  I think the planet just might be fighting back. 
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 10, 2019, 10:00:16 PM
Dear Group,

I often remind my brothers and sisters:
     Psychological projection is a defense mechanism people subconsciously employ in order to cope with difficult feelings or emotions. Psychological projection involves projecting undesirable feelings or emotions onto someone else, rather than admitting to or dealing with the unwanted feelings.Nov 15, 2017
Psychological Projection: Dealing With Undesirable Emotions
https://www.everydayhealth.com/.../psychological-projection-dealing-with-undesirable-e...  (Links don't C&P well)

The conservative mind and the need to villainize the messenger.  It's fun to witness and sends up the flag of caution.  I also like the ratio of ill thoughts to the threat of the message.

A sometimes amusing, often tiresome, always over-the-top display of the combination of deep insecurity with narcissism - that's what we're watching

I was gonna say "you could write a book"  but all you'd really have to do is cut-and-paste lol
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: veggie on August 10, 2019, 10:57:04 PM

Lowgear,

I get what you are saying. I'm not sure if there is any solution at this point.
And certainly no points that we need to argue. Just not important enough. Opinions are just that. And an open mind is necessary.
The elephant in the room is "overpopulation" and "human nature".
Everything stems from there.
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 11, 2019, 06:52:24 PM
Hey Veggie,

I absolutely agree.

and

Sometimes I use the words of others to lend credence and not to spin my wheels writing what has been better written.  I'd suggest my lazy boy links at the least caught some attention. 

Quote
A sometimes amusing, often tiresome, always over-the-top display of the combination of deep insecurity with narcissism - that's what we're watching
And yet the messenger lives.

Before it gets stupidly personal I invite you to look upon the changing world with curiosity and awe.  It's probably going to happen.  No matter what.  Anyway.

Cheers,

Casey
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 11, 2019, 07:10:50 PM
Adult thought all around, Veggie and Casey, yes
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: LowGear on August 16, 2019, 07:05:07 PM
Here's another interesting YouTube article.  Okay, this father and son team are way prejudice says the Elon Fanboy but Jack Richard is an accomplished gear head.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfILTM_xcOE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfILTM_xcOE)

Maybe some hyperbola thrown in for good measure.

Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: mikenash on August 16, 2019, 09:45:23 PM
Fascinating. "Follow the money", as they say . . .
Title: Re: Tesla
Post by: BruceM on August 16, 2019, 11:59:47 PM
The EV Werks guy is an interesting character, and is no slouch on EV tech and cars, having been at it for ages in his own business.