Author Topic: Tesla  (Read 468 times)

mikenash

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 639
    • View Profile
Tesla
« on: August 05, 2019, 07:24:07 PM »
Hey Glort I thought you might be interested in this as an example of ownership costs for one of these

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhbD44jXffY

glort

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2944
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2019, 11:36:03 PM »

3 Battery Packs, 1 Motor.
Good job they were covered by warranty but does not say much about the long term viability units with lower miles but out of warranty.
Given the lag time with any Tesla model being released anywhere but the states, I would hate to think how long one of those things could be off the road outside the US waiting for a major part like a Battery pack or a motor.  I would Guess there are exactly Zero held in stock in OZ, NZ and a lot of other minor markets for them.

Tesla have taken the page down last time I looked but I did show here somewhere that the cost of power was more than one would pay here  and in a lot of other places for Fuel for a mid to large size Vehicle like a Camry or Holden/ Ford. That was on THEIR own numbers not mine. As usual the numbers were massaged with an amount of Free charging added in but once you used that up, the fact they showed themselves was that these things would be more expensive to run.
If you were after outright economy, there would be a stack of smaller Diesel and petrol cars that would leave it for dead.

Whenever the running cost thing comes up, people, especially those from the US immediately start carrying on about " Oil Changes" as if they were a weekly cost.  Ironic I see in the background of that clip a place that has "Oil changes $29.95 " emblazoned on a sign at the front of the building.
Stats from way back show the greater majority of vehicles are never serviced anywhere near the correct intervals anyway.

If there was one car I'd never pay money to own it would be a Tesla.
Last year I gave them 5 years before they went under. Down to 4 Now but I'm more confident in my prediction than before.


LowGear

  • Casey
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2043
  • What? My diesel had fries for lunch?
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2019, 06:20:37 PM »
Elon Fanboy Here!

Owning a part of a paradigm change will always have it's costs.  Diving the most advanced automobile in the world will also have costs.  Let's face it "Nice stuff costs more!" "The best is never cheap".

And you're not poisoning everyone you pass or your very safe passengers.  Is it true they're the safest production cars in the world?

The real innovation of the Tesla brand is their network updates.  They figure out a better way to do things on Tuesday and a couple of weeks later every unit that is compatible is updated rather than the owner being encouraged to buy the new and improved model or schedule a recall update appointment with the dealer.

Tesla's charging system will keep Tesla alive for many, many years.

I'm playing with a Fiat 500e and only dream of a Tesla.  My 4,000 miles a year on two different chunks of land make an expensive automobile out of any real question.  The Fiat is fast (up to 70 MPH) and drives really nice and is easy to drive as most small cars are without the giant hood to house the 19th century power supply.  I think there may be more moving parts in an ICE six than in an entire Tesla.

I'm wondering how the big battery experiment is going?  I hear they're going to save Australia from it's failure to plan for the 21st century.
NPR Tipper/Dump Truck
Kubota BX 2230
Witte BD Generator
SunnyBoy 6000 + SolarWorld 245

mikenash

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 639
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2019, 09:07:09 PM »
IMHO. What we Missing here - regardless of whether were fanboys or haters - is what this 450,000 mile maintenance cost record tells us.

He says $0.06 a mile all up. Maybe hes fudged a few numbers or maybe he hasnt?

But if that car is compared with a luxury car of comparable size with a petrol engine Id guess it would do about 30MPG. With gas at $2.05 here - thats $0.33  per mile for gas alone

Regardless of arguments about who paid for what - those are the numbers Id be focusing on

veggie

  • Keep Calm and Start the Lister !
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 442
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2019, 01:51:34 AM »

I like the "Idea" of an EV, but current calculations show that over the live of the vehicle they are more carbon intensive that conventional cars.
(When we factor in the mining of the rare earth metals that go into the motors and the disposal of the used batteries.)
As far as exhaust emissions, the EV's are just shifting the combustion away from the vehicle and over to a coal fired (or natural gas fired) generating facility. Over time the power grid will have to grow immensely to accommodate the power demand. Grid growth will demand a huge amount of metal mining (wire) and fossil fuels to to implement. In more remote places like some of the Hawaiian islands (Maui for example) the combustion process is shifted from gasoline (in the car) over to to the three large oil fired generators on the island.
Solar can charge cars too as long as the sun shines and the solar array in big enough.
Maybe the world needs a mix of all types of locomotion and power generation to lessen the load on any single source.
- 6/1 GM90 Listeroid - Delco 33si Alternator
- Changfa R175 - Lease/Neville Alternator
- Kubota Z482 - 4kw
- JiangDong R165 Air cooled - 2 kw

glort

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2944
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2019, 02:58:41 AM »

Could not agree more with everything you said Veg.

The whole green and save the world thing is so tainted by lies and exaggerations by those so desperate to push their cult like religion on everyone else.
The Misconstrue the situation so badly rather than be truthful so the shortcomings cane be considered and dealt with.
It's all touted as wonderful and great but the behind the scenes realities are hidden, buried and ignored becase they don't promote the ideal the green cult  wants to portray.

80% of the worlds energy is Still FF and again, despite the lies and exaggerations, it will be for a LOOOONG time to come yet.  My neighbour just got back from a 5 week Holiday north and somewhat inland of Oz. He was telling me about the coal loading port he saw.  It handles up to 6 ships at a time and they are simultaneously loading coal in them all as fast as they can. Most of it is going to China and Japan.  He said he was surprised at first because we are all told coal is so dead but he said just to see what they are doing at that one port is incredible.  He was there 3 days and he said the least amount of ships he saw waiting in the bay was 24 and there weren't any there when they left that were there when they arrived.

To parrot the ignorance of " No tail pipe" with EV's is ridiculous. Point that out in discussions and the next rubbish one will be told is it moves the pollution from the cities to the country.  Ah yeah, but isn't this about saving the PLANET not just the citys?? Again the idea smacks of a selfish attitude in as much as I'm right jack, YOU deal with MY rubbish.

People also go on about batterys getting cheaper. I find that laughable and ignorant.  If one looks beyond the media hype, Current tech batteries in Lipo etc have already fallen all they are going to through production and scaling.  The resources to make them are limited, the places you can get them from even the mine owners say are good for about 5 years and the processing of the materials is a fithy, contaminating process that only back hole countries that are desperate for any buck they can get will allow. From what I read there are less than 5 places that will process the materials needed for batteries and motors at the present time with the present tech. Of course then you send it back to the first wold in FF burning ships and do all the manufacturing with all FF bar a token amount of RE thrown in the mix.  To make matters worse, this EV hysteria will have a lot of perfectly serviceable vehicles scrapped when they had good life left in them that would reduce the resource consumption and emissions of the new vehicle.

Add the limited supply of materials to a rapidly increasing demand and I'd like someone to explain to me the economic principals that they think will cause the price to fall.  If it were simply production volume, Lead acid car batteries would be given away by now but even they are going up, a lot, every time I buy one. Then there is the next great green fantasy, they are developing new tech batteries.  They have been for 100 effing years! Nothing new about that. Best they have come up with is where we are now with all the inherent problems that make those a short term bandaid at best.

A big thing I see is the lifetime of a vehicle.  There are loads of 10 Yo+ Vehicles on the road here. I think it was mike who was recently posting about Camrys and the huge mileage they would do. My daughters car is the youngest in our fleet and at 11 yo old still looks and drives like a new car. I need to throw a timing belt on the thing soon and it will be good for another 120K km with nothing more than regular services and probably a CV shaft boot and  some sway bar links which go on these cars. Big deal.
I'm very suspect on the longevity of these EV batterys ( and the linked vid above does nothing to undermine those doubts) and I can't see 10 YO Ev's being good for anything bar scrap one the packs go out.  I thought that this might just reduce range and they would still be OK for short hops but I have learned that this is not the case. The BMS in a lot of EV's will allow a certain amount of cell degradation and then it just switches the things off for safety among other reasons. 

Used packs will be , A, hard to find in good condition all being around the dame age, and, B, In huge demand so the prices won't be cheap.
As such there will be a LOT of useless EV's that are good for nothing bar scrap.

The cost of a battery pack and installing it in a 10 Yo EV will be completely non viable.  Look at the  quoted resale value of that Tesla in the vid and it's only 3 Yo. Sure the miles are high but aren't these things supposed to be so low maintence and cheap to run? That being the case, why isn't the thing still worth at least $50K not 15?
Batterys have a Shelf life as well as a cyclic life and once that pack is dead, the only thing the car might be good for is putting some lead acids in the back and running to the local shops and back.... except you won't be able to do that because the inbuilt computers won't allow it.

The idea of solar charging from home is also laughable in many instances. I have a stupid amount of panels on my roof and I can't cover my electrical needs for the house in winter. Sure, My house is all electric and draws more than most but again, I have 4+ times the amount of panels a standard modern ( let alone older)  setup has.  Many people have trouble Fitting 5/6 Kw on their roofs so it's far from just a matter of put more panels up. 

And this exemplifies exactly what I am saying about the green interests lying and shooting themselves in the foot making out the soloutions are all there.
We have the much touted idea you can charge an EV from Home. Clearly few are going to have the ability to power the home AND the ev even if it is at home during the day. Next widely spread green ideal is you can charge the car at night using cheap off peak.  That is fantasy as well because with their other ultimate goal of an all renewable grid, Off peak is never going to be at night when the main input of any RE around the world bar the few places that run on Hydro alone is not producing. Add to the fact the other reality and green motivation is to put more people in smaller homes and more apartments and there is nowhere to put rooftop PV but you know the majority of these homes will still have a vehicle.

Rather than the green motivated make out it's all fine and dandy and crapping on about things not being done fast enough, they need to be admitting this is a HUGE problem and there is no answer yet by a long shot.  They need to get their act together and look at all the conflicting problems with their ideas as I have just pointed out and see which way they actually want to go.  But they wont because we all know whether we want to admit it or not the whole Save the planet idea is a noble and worthwhle cause bastardised and turned into a scam for profit.

I keep reading about all these things that will happen by 2030 and just shake and hold my head. Most of these things haven't a hope in hell of being near reality for 50 years and beyond.

Sure EVs are being pushed and lied about. The car companies both established and those startups coming out the wood work will have the greatest money making opportunity in the history of vehicle manufacture. The gubbermints will push it because they get sales taxes and other revenue and win votes from the green faction for being seen to support the cause they believe in.
They know it will all turn out to be seen as a lie and fall on it's face but in the mean time, it's a great cash cow and later on the people profiteering now will be sitting on their well padded arses and it will be someone elses problem to spin doctor why it all went tits up and blame the man in the street for it all. 

Just playing with my own Pissant solar setup is a great insight into the difficulties of RE.  It's anything but simple and it sure as hell isn't going to be the great revolution  that happens in 10 years time as everyone makes out.





glort

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2944
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2019, 03:27:01 AM »
IMHO. What we Missing here - regardless of whether were fanboys or haters - is what this 450,000 mile maintenance cost record tells us.

He says $0.06 a mile all up. Maybe hes fudged a few numbers or maybe he hasnt?
Regardless of arguments about who paid for what - those are the numbers Id be focusing on

Yes, I'd be focusing on them too.

First thing I see is an $80K car that is now worth $15K. 80-15/450K = .14C mile in depreciation alone. I would suggest most people would be Borrowing for a car of that price so there would be the difference in loan interest between what a none EV might cost, $30K? and the extra cost of the Tesla.
He also said maintence cost, you said fuel cost. There's a difference.  Last time I compared  Fuel cost for a tesla using THEIR own numbers, it worked out MORE exy for the EV.

Again the figures are skewed with maintence cost here.  The thing is only so cheap because it had MAJOR components replaced under warranty, Multiple Times. What's the cost going to be of replacing those things when it's out of warranty?  I'm sure given you proclivities for vehicles that last a long time and common sense for anyone spending that much on a car would want to look at it as a 10 Yr proposition.  3 battery packs and 1 Motor in 3 years so far? Good luck with the next 7 years is all I can say!!

Focusing on the cost of Maintenance while the thing is under warranty is Typical Tesla slight of hand, deception and Conning people.
The real figures to look at are Cost of OWNERSHIP which is the standard parameter of any vehicle assessment in this way.
On that score I would bet this thing would be horrific over 10 years and not all that flash to date so far either.

Rather than this vehicle be something to gloat about, To me it smacks of typical fan boy hyping up of what is in reality a LEMON!
If you bought a car 3 years ago and the thing went through 3 gearboxes and an engine even if it did have 600K Km on it, You would say it was a POS not something that didn't cost much in maintence because it was replaced ( Multiple times) under warranty!  ::)

I drove little Toyota Echos for a courier job some year back. All intensively around the City not highway miles like this thing has done which are far easier on any vehicle. The " Youngest" in that fleet of 7 vehicles had 420K km on it and the oldest had about 540K km. No doubt in my mind they would all run to 700K.  There was a few in other states the company ran that had 700 and 800K km on them so they were doing it.
I see Subaru's that are near 20 YO all the time with 450-500K km on them and that's a lot harder doing domestic use than driving something for hours non stop. I personally know of Hyundais that do country Blood runs and rack up 600Km+ a DAY and are going strong with no problems years later. That's why the organisations running them keep buying them.  For a while they were rotating them at 40K Km but got too much turning them over all the time so now have just gone to running them into the ground.... which is taking a LOT longer than anyone expected!  These are sub $20K cars here, about  $324.36 + tax  in the states.  :laugh:

Sorry, but I'm anything BUT impressed with that Tesla.  The fact they couldn't even put a decent battery pack in the thing the first 2 times and no guarantee the 3rd one will be any better says it all for me. I have not found age does cars much good either so even if the thing did the same miles over 10 or more years, I would think the problems had a greater likelihood of getting worse rather than better.

BruceM

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2740
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2019, 04:57:09 AM »
Tesla doesn't use rare earth magnets in their motors-  they are variable speed 3 phase induction motors; copper and steel.  That's been public knowledge since their introduction.
The cobalt in the batteries have been reduced substantially in the newer versions. 

I don't think Tesla is going away, and they are selling their drivetrains and batteries to other companies.  Their battery management hardware is presently the best in the world. 





« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 05:08:25 AM by BruceM »

AdeV

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 469
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2019, 08:33:36 AM »
People also go on about batterys getting cheaper. I find that laughable and ignorant. 

With all due respect - I vehemently disagree. Consider - battery technology was rapidly developed in the late C19th, and almost completely stalled in the early C20th with the rise and rise of the internal combustion engine. It's only in the late C20th that interest in batteries started to revive - mainly because of these newfangled mobile/cell phone things, and the advent of laptops. Battery research and technology is now at a fever pitch, and is only going to get bigger as the market grows. More potential sales $ = more research = better, smaller (size... bigger capacity), faster.

If one looks beyond the media hype, Current tech batteries in Lipo etc have already fallen all they are going to through production and scaling.  The resources to make them are limited,

Agreed - lithium has a finite lifetime as a battery tech. It's served us well, much like leaded petrol did in the early days of the petrol engine, and now it's time is drawing to an end. Alternative chemistries are being researched now; some (many) will prove to be impractical for one reason or another, but it only takes one or two to beat LiPO, and the job's done.

And yes, yes, before you say it: There's a massive difference between R&D/lab scale experiments, than a commercial quality offering, but the demand IS there now; the demand is ONLY going to get higher; and DEMAND is what will drive the R&D into commercialisation. It may not be the best tech that wins (see VHS vs. Betamax), but whatever tech comes through will be good enough.


The argument about generation and delivery capacity..... yeah, well, that's a whole different gether all to twist.
Cheers!
Ade.
--------------
1x Lister CS Start-o-Matic (complete, runs)
0x Lister JP4 :( - Sold to go in a canal boat.

mikenash

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 639
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2019, 09:01:20 AM »
What's Betamax and VHS grandad? lol  I can hear my kids now

PLus , of course, we have 85%+ renewable power here with our hydro and wind - so my viewpoint is biased because of that

glort

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2944
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2019, 09:35:20 AM »
but it only takes one or two to beat LiPO, and the job's done.

And yes, yes, before you say it:

Haha, No I wasn't thinking that, I was thinking you had a valid point.
Everything has to start in a lab somewhere.

As for the best tech, that's a very debatable scale.  Right now I think not too polluting and cheap would win out for a lot of things. If one could meet those parameters, then making something that could approach grid scale may be possible and that would be a HUGE leap forward in itself.
Weight isn't a factor nor is compact size.  Seems to me a waste of resources to be using Lithium in any flavour for stationary applications where even LA could be used.

Different technology's could do different jobs and be applied where they were appropriate.  Does not have to be a single technology.

glort

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2944
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2019, 10:34:06 AM »

PLus , of course, we have 85%+ renewable power here with our hydro and wind - so my viewpoint is biased because of that

You also have an amount of what appears to be under utilised Geothermal power.  I think it could be used for a lot more than putting a hot tub in every Hotel in Rotorua  or powering just the stadium there.
When I went to the thermal park and saw the big lake and the steam shooting out the ground, First thought I had was WTF doesn't everyone have a  bore and turbine in their back yards?  I sure as heck would have!

While there are a few countries that have vast amounts of Hydro Like Norway that can supply all their power needs and those of neighbouring countries as well, they are very much in the minority. There are a lot of teslas there and it makes sense but for much of the rest of the world using FF..... not so much.
Here in Oz our natural Resource is coal. That dirty 4 letter word that the world owes so much too but has fallen from favour in preference to unreliables.
Powering a vehicle from Oil or coal is pretty much the same thing in reality. 

There was a big reason the world went from wind and Hydro power and had the industrial revolution, it was because thermal power offered all the power you wanted, when you wanted it and for as long as you wanted it. Somehow we seem to have forgotten that lesson and we now want to go back to the vagaries of the weather for our power.

I don't know what the NZ power grid is like, I read like many things there it could use a bit of a " Freshen Up" and a few Bob spent on it.
From what I read and know, Oz and a lot of other places are starting to struggle to meet demand for power now.  Once all these EV's start  getting significan't in number, I can see power prices going through the roof and being in short supply.
We already have Blackouts here because too many people want to pull 3 Kw extra from the grid on hot days. Wait till they all start wanting to do that every day.

It will be interesting to see how the EV thing goes.
So many manufacturers now are all going hell bent on it.  New models will be raining down in the next 2-3 years.
I certainly wouldn't entertain buying one for at least 5 years.  Being a new tech the price will have to drop just to meet wide scale affordability so the 50K cars now are likely to be $5K cars in 5 years time. If that.
Features will be improved, range and other things will get better and early vehicles will drop in value like a stone.

I see affordability as the biggest factor in EV uptake.
Right now the magic price barrier for batterys is $100 per KWH.  If they do crack some new tech and can bring it in at 50 or even $25 kwh, then the cost of the vehicles is likely to drop fast and the arse will fall out of resale prices on older models.
We can see this happening already with tesla Vehicles.  The model 3 being so much cheaper than The S and the X has not only eroded sales of those Vehicles new, in the US where they are plentiful, it's also hurt the resale price of those cars.  Why buy used when you can get new for the same or close to it? Add to that the 3 is new and the S and X are getting on for 10 Yo designs.  When they get round to Doing the Y in a couple of years ( given that it's supposed to be in production by this years end so won't be around for a while yet) I'd be certain it will erode the value of all 3 previous models.
Throw in the models by VW and the Koreans and probably China..... To me buying an EV in the next 5 years would be a very poor investment.

The latest bit of Fiction from musk is that  Tesla will be producing 1000 Solar roofs a week by the end of the year.
I have $1000 to put in an escrow account to bet any takers that is just more complete and utter bullshit that won't come near fruition.
It's a safe bet  from the grand master of Con men and Charletons given his perfect and untainted record of laughably failed predictions and excuses.
 
They haven't even got the factory Finished they are going to produce them in yet and this arse clown reckons they will be producing 1000 Roofs a week?
Couldn't produce enough for 1000 Doll houses let alone  actual homes.

Probably need to read the fine print with anything he says. Did he mean THIS year? Calendar year, financial year, lunar year, Romulan or Cardassian year?? End of the year 2021 would be about my bet.


mike90045

  • Mendocino Metro
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1370
  • Mmmm BBQ
    • View Profile
    • Mikes Solar PV page
Re: Tesla
« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2019, 03:07:05 PM »
Geothermal power.  They keep trying, but the dissolved minerals plug up the works very quickly.  Under heat and pressure, they stay in solution, but as you  extract energy (heat exchanges, direct to turbine) the works get gummed up.   The Geysers thermal plant near me in Northern Calif, is more of a way for the utility to play and say they are using green power, but it's often down for repair more than it's working, regardless what wikipedia says

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geysers




glort

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2944
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2019, 03:28:33 PM »

Wow. The stupidity of mankind never ceases to amaze me.

Quote
Even with increasing injection rates over time, the rate of magnitude 3 earthquakes has remained relatively unchanged since the 1980s,[14] although the absolute number of earthquakes has increased significantly.[2]

So they know what they are doing is causing earthquakes but they keep doing it anyway.
If the earth shaking isn't telling you something, I don't know what would be.

I learned something at least. I thought Geo thermal was steam naturally occurring. I didn't realise they pumped water down to make steam.
Would seem to me the earth isn't too happy about it and one day it's going to bite them on the backside real hard.

LowGear

  • Casey
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2043
  • What? My diesel had fries for lunch?
    • View Profile
Re: Tesla
« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2019, 06:38:51 PM »
My Fiat 500e drives very nicely.  It's so wonderful to walk down to the car and it's fueling system is full every morning.  Okay, in the Pacific Northwest the Grand Coulee Dam is a socialist device but other than that it's really nice.
NPR Tipper/Dump Truck
Kubota BX 2230
Witte BD Generator
SunnyBoy 6000 + SolarWorld 245