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Author Topic: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....  (Read 707 times)

glort

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Re: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....
« Reply #30 on: January 01, 2019, 10:05:10 PM »
EV drivers seem to be eternal optimists, often quoting range figures that are unhelpful,

I find the exact same thing.  it's like the EV proponents have to exaggerate everything and blow it out of proportion. I think they are shooting their own cause in the foot for the exact reasons you mention. many will buy EV's with expectation based on what they have heard and read about so many times only to find a host of realities don't add up like range, ability to charge and cost to run just to name a few. Then there are other things like being so smooth.
Yes, they are smooth in the carpark at 10 Kmh but going anywhere you are still driving on the same potholed and badly maintained roads and given the things don't levitate, the NVH is much more to do with the driving surface that the motive powerplant.
Then of course there is the " No oil changes" crap which leads one to think the things never need servicing.  They do and while maybe not as regular, one does not have to refuel an IC car every trip  like many would have to do with an IC or at very least, many more times for the same miles covered against an IC.

I was discussing a few days ago my envisioning of recharging in holiday times.  On a highway I regularly travel on there are some large "service Centres" .  Petrol stations in the middle of no where on the highway about an hour from anything.  They have multiple food outlets, playground for the kids and even showers. They are also truck stops. They probably have at least 50 Bowsers and are very busy at any time and have cars lined up on the entrance road at holiday times especially now.

I wonder how these places and the people that frequent them are going to get on in the EV age?
If a car now takes 5 min to pull up, refuel, pay and drive off to get food or what ever, how many more chargers will be needed to maintain the already inadequate throughput of vehicles? I see a double edged sword with this.
If you say they will each take 30 min to recharge, you will then need to go from 50 bowsers to 300 chargers to cater for the same amount of vehicles.
If you say there will be faster charging in say 10 years which stands to reason, then you are fast getting into the many  Mw range of power the place will have to be wired to in order to provide that speed of charging.  In any case, even with the 350 Kw chargers being tested I read about before christmas, you are still going to need more than 5 Minutes for a full charge.

Yes, an 80% charge will be much quicker proportionally BUT, these vehicles are going to be loaded to the gun whales with the family and all their holiday crap and I'd suggest at least 20% of vehicles  have a roof pod, a trailer with the obligatory stack of bicycles on the top, a boat or caravan behind them.
in practacality you could not have these service centres or enough smaller stations to cater for the demand more than 50 Km apart.

Somone on another discussion said but these can be solar powered and people can travel through the day. quick  back of envelope calculations using real world figures showed these stations would be neededing about 4MW of power at most optomistic economy and that the conservative standard allowing for future improvements in panel efficency, that added up to a solar generation area of 1,200 acres..... and that is of course on a good sunny day. If it happens to be cloudy..... well the  grid that can't handle people turning on their AC on a hot day now is going to totally fall over.

I also crunched the numbers of EV groth predictions and the amount of extra power that would require on the grid. While  of course many disagreed with my numbers and ran the calcs from of course a highly unlikley best case improbable scenario for technology only existing in a press release of a trial, my numbers showed that the predicted growth rate of EV's was not in any way realistic with the amount of growth and infrastructure the grid would have to have invested in it to handle the extra draw. Especially here in oz with a complete debacle of a privatised system, no one wants to spend a dime in infrastructure and even if they do, Between various  vested interest and plain out opposers of any progress groups,  Putting in a new light pole takes 5 years here and they are talking about  adding Gw of capacity to a system that is juggled like Crockery on the leg of an upside down chair to stop it crashing the same way.

it's pretty simple really. The return on investment, motivation and profit potential in pushing EV's is going to greatly exceede that of the biblical investment , long term payoff and desire to sink money into the grid at a sufficent rate to keep up.

The one thing I do see turning around is the  Feed in limiting we have on domestic solar now all over the country. The power cos will see this as a get out of jail card even temporarily when they can supply the grid with teh needed power without having to spend the billions that is going to be required otherwise.  Won't last forever but doesn't have to in their minds, just long enough for the CEO and board of directors to retire or move onto another company and let someone else deal with rebuilding the system.

Listers are going to be worth a LOT of money in the next 10 years!

ajaffa1

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Re: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....
« Reply #31 on: January 01, 2019, 10:50:16 PM »
Hi Glort, Australia is a particularly unsuitable place for EVs because of the low population density and distances involved. I can certainly see their value in city areas but rural communities don`t have the electrical infrastructure to support them.

When I was living in London I did some research into the vulnerability of the electric supply to a terrorist attack. I was shocked to find that London is supplied by only seven incoming power lines, six above ground and one below. All of the above ground lines run through rural areas with no security and are maxed out. A single terrorist on a motorbike, with some Semtex, detonators and burn phones could take out the whole lot in an evening and still catch the Dover ferry to France.

London has a population approaching 8 million, if anyone believes that many people should charge their cars using the existing overloaded and insecure infrastructure, they are out of their minds.

I am surprised that the motor manufacturers continue down this path, when it is clear that the electrical infrastructure is completely inadequate. Perhaps it is a cynical attempt to sell us something that isn`t going to work, they can then sell us another one, with an ICE, that will.

Bob

glort

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Re: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....
« Reply #32 on: January 02, 2019, 12:58:13 AM »

I agree Bob. It's a good job I'm only a miserable not a vengeful kind of Fruitcake. I think pretty much everyone here would have the potential and knowledge through an understanding of Basic DIY to wreak a ton of havoc on anything that minds became twisted enough to do.
I regularly look at things and think how Vulnerable they are and what I could do to them if I wanted. It's plain scary.  I laugh about all these " security " measures we have inflicted upon us and all the talk of gun restrictions etc.

I used to think what I could do with a an oxy and acetylene bottle I can pick up anywhere.  After playing around with Hydrogen and HoHoHO generators, I realise all I need is some water, wire and drain cleaner and I could take out some serious infrastructure or a lot of people.  By the same token, I was in Melbourne 2 years ago when that maniac drove down the mall and cleaned all those people up with the same make model and colour of car my wife previously drove.  One thing to see it on TV, another to be right there and see it in person.

I think you are right about EV's.  the more things are pushed and made a big deal of, the quicker they fizzle out and the further from the hype they prove in practice.

I think as I said there will be an initial excited uptake like a new Iphoney coming out and then when people get them, it will be all about the shortcomings and how they DO NOT live up to the hype and people will be sticking to or going back to conventional vehicles.
The hype now supposes everyone wants to save money on fuel and or save the environment.  I think the majority of people outside the inner city trendies who don't have cars to start with couldn't give s hit about those things.  Millions of cars a year are sold on nothing more thabn how they look or the paint colour.  Few women would have a clue what the economy their car got and not many blokes care.

Even in the economy considerations, there is a factor I saw mentioned that isn't usually taken into account ( besides charging inefficiency)

the cost of oil is largely artificial.  That is the price is controlled not by production costs as much  as a group  colluding to set the price to govern demand and maximise profits.  They turn production up or down to give the returns they want.
When Ev's start making any inroads and oil consumption falls ( If it falls)  it's very easy for OPEC and friends to drop the price of oil.  Suddenly the economy of teh EV and the decision of which way to go is not so clear cut nor advantageous to the ev as made out. As demand on electricity is likley to push the price up and declining demand on oil is likley to make it cheaper, the purported cost advantage of EV's  and the lie it will be will not be able to be hidden.

The other thing said of EV's is they will get cheaper as battery's get cheaper.  I'm a very long way from convinced.
I was reading the other day that there are some more Cobalt and  lithium mines coming on line soon to meet demand.  article went on to say that they are still in hard to get at places and they know the supply of the metals is very limited. Even the investors see them as a 5 year proposition and the industry is hoping to find another chemistry before all the lithium and cobalt run out.

I see no reason what a limited, huge demand resource should become cheaper particularly when it is going to have to be replaced by another new tech that will as always have high initial costs till there is more production of it.  Of course if the market demand outstrips supply, why would it ever get cheaper?  the Demand from phones and laptops influences the price now. Imagine the effect of millions of products having a requirement for kilos of the stuff for every unit produced instead of a few grams of it.

This isn't about changing the vehicle people have in their garages, it isn't about changing transport, it's about changing the whole world as we know it and that is going to take a lot more time than people are giving credit for and that's if it actually goes the way people are thinking ATM which is far from guaranteed.


 


BruceM

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Re: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....
« Reply #33 on: January 02, 2019, 01:27:38 AM »
I expect there will be some serious glitches on the road of EV transition. 

I think we will soon see even bigger spreads on power cost depending on time of day and load-  perhaps even more than just peak, off peak, and super off peak.  If you don't plan ahead and end up charging on peak rates, it will be brutal.  I'd love to be charging a car at the APS winter super off peak rate of 3 cents a kwh.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to the numbers of people developing serious ES from the increased magnetic fields in electric cars, plus the huge increase in pulsed mm wave of 5G.  Even in conventional cars, the wireless and electronics in the car have increased dramatically.  It's almost like we're in a race to see how many people we can disable and destroy their quality of life. 






 

cujet

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Re: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....
« Reply #34 on: January 02, 2019, 02:43:24 AM »
I drive quite a few miles per year. Including a good number 1000 mile trips from FL to PA. The truth is, an EV can't make the trip in a reasonable amount of time.

Here is an interesting blog: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089948_tesla-model-s-ny-to-fl-trip-from-home-to-south-carolina
People who count on their fingers should maintain a discreet silence

BruceM

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Re: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....
« Reply #35 on: January 02, 2019, 03:31:43 AM »
No doubt battery improvement will continue, and range and weight will decline.  There seems to be a good number of people willing to pony up for the current EVs, and that can only help with battery research and development funding.  Pragmatists will certainly benefit from waiting.

By all technical reports, Tesla has done exceptionally well in battery management- by that I mean cell voltage control at the cell level, not hoping a bunch of cells in series will cycle and stay matched in charge level.  They use a boatload of tiny TI battery management ICs with serial bus communications.  Nissan is paying for their BMS corner cutting with lots of battery failures under warranty.  I haven't found the details on the Bolt battery management scheme, but knowing GM cost pressures on Delco, I would investigate closely and give them a few years to take their lumps.









mikenash

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Re: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....
« Reply #36 on: January 02, 2019, 03:59:52 AM »
I'm less of a pessimist than Glort et al re the EVs (not to say that I may well be proved wrong and they may well be proved right . . .) I'm just more glass-half-full about that sort of thing

That Blog is fascinating as it's a real-world guy driving at 130 km/h (end up in handcuffs here if you do that, sadly) and using the heater and lights and enjoying the performance of his car in real-world conditions such as snow, and accepting that you normally break a trip for lunch or whatever somewhere anyway

For a great many people like me an EV would be a perfect service vehicle if there was a fast charger at my work - and if suitable vehicles were available.  Our team of seven engineers have daily commutes ranging from 80Ks (mine) down to 8Ks.  Our normal travel-to-job-and-back is usually about an 80K round-trip for 90% of jobs and up to maybe 250Ks for the farthest one or two sites.  I get a $100 fill of diesel one-and-a-half or two times a week. Sometimes three times a week if we are busy

Our small country has old-but-acceptable electrical infrastructure and we are 85%+ renewable.  Our government says that projected infrastructure upgrades are showing a faster growth in the provision of electricity availability than would be needed with even the most optimistic EV uptake projections

We also have big proportions of our population who are 3/4-hour one-way-trip commuters twice a day on routes that don't have good public transport.  EVs would probably serve many of them well

FWIW the Toyota Hiluxes and Isuzu DMaxes we use are $50K vehicles but the Indian and Chinese equivalents (reliability still to be proven) are only around half that $$ as fleet purchases.  In the future, I suspect that if there's a demand, there may well be Chinese-built EV service vehicles in the pipeline

I'm optimistic about the contribution tech can make to the challenges around EVs

What I'm less optimistic about is local and national government leading by example, moving their fleets to EVs, and contributing to a pool of secondhand Leafs or similar as the years go by and government vehicle fleets "rollover" every three years

NZ government fleet is conservatively estimated at 25,000 units, with local government fleets possibly adding a similar figure.  Some of these are buses and rubbish trucks etc; but if just half were suitable (say 24,000 cos it's an easy number) and if a third of them were rolled-over annually - that'd be 8000 2nd-hand EVs on the market every year

Kiwis register something like 700 Corollas, 200 i30s and Mazda3s plus another 400-odd similar-sized vehicles every month.  Maybe, in very crude terms, you could say we register 1300 vehicles every month that could be readily replaced by small/mid-sized EVs IF THEY WERE AVAILABLE.  Call it 16,000 a year for ease of maths and you could see the contribution that ex-govt-fleet of 8000 EVs would make if our governments had some balls

We could generate and reticulate the electricity with ease if there was a governmental will.  If the average diesel/petrol tanker holds 28,000 litres, and my Hilux uses 7,500 litres of diesel a year, every half-dozen comparable vehicles or, say, 15 "Corolla"-sized cars replaced by EVs might take a tanker-and-trailer off the road

Should I hold my breath?


ajaffa1

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Re: Now for a bit of silliness, possibly purchasing a Chevy Volt....
« Reply #37 on: January 02, 2019, 05:47:09 AM »
I have to agree with Mikenash about NZ being a perfect candidate for EVs, plentiful hydroelectric power and short commuting distances are an ideal environment in which to test these new technologies.

BruceM raises a very valid point about the dangers of exposing ever more people to ever greater levels of electromagnetic radiation. I heard a very worrying statistic recently, in the USA 1 in 28 children born today will be diagnosed as having some form of autism. In the 1980s the figure was closer to 1 in 2000. Strangely enough in undeveloped parts of the world the incidence is almost nil.

Glort is quite right about the availability of the minerals/metals required for battery production and the difficulty off ramping up the mining operations to meet this new demand. I wonder how much fossil fuel gets burned in the mining, processing and distribution of these materials, might be more economically sensible to just use the FFs in an ICE.

I guess as we continue to deplete the available resources the prices will climb to a point at which only the very wealthy will be able to afford them and the rest of us will have to go back to walking, cycling, riding horses and siting in the dark on an evening. Pretty bleak future unless you own a Lister. Might be time to get back to finishing mine.

Bob