Got a message from Bob today to say the wind turned the fire away from him but still no rain.
I checked the forecast For Sydney and as usual, it's been revised to about a 175o turnaround on what it's been most of the week.
Got me thinking about the accuracy of the weather forecasts here.
Yesterday we were forecast to get good rain, 50 Mm or for those in the states using the old antiquated system, in imperial, 50mm is , ahh,,,, 50mm!
I think last night we got about 3, going on, but not quite, 4 Drops.
Wasn't just here, predictions fell painfully short all over.
Most of the week has been a prediction for good rain for the weekend. Look it up now, of course it's revised to a trickle.
AND.... my favourite BS of all.... " Chance of....." " Possible xxxx" " Likley XXX..... "
WTF is with all the words of chance? I could say " there is a chance of" with nothing at all to go on and I have the scpegoat of " well, I said " chance" and now and then I'd have to get it right. thee is a " chance" AND a " Possibility of" me winning the lottery too but thats no more assured than the weather bureau's predictions getting up and being accurate.
Something I have noticed for years.... they tend to predict rain that does not happen rather than predict sunshine when it turns out rain. I often wonder if this is a social/ political/ PR type thing. Tell people it's going to rain and when you get a few clouds and that's it, they are much happier than if you tell them it will be sunshine and they get their arses wet. Perhaps a case of people being more happy when you are wrong than when you are right.
I know nothing about weather forecasting BUT, they do talk about all the high tech they have and the Millions they invest in equipment and operations each year but the accuracy in my book is pretty poor. Their worst predictions seem to come with their extreme warnings. This year already I distinctly remember warnings for extreme heat with all sorts of warning to stay out the sun, make sure pets have shelter and water, prop granny in front of the AC and make sure she has some water as well and so it went. Turned out to be warm but cooler days than what we already had and nothing near the fire and brimstone they scared the doodoo out of everyone with.
Same with storms.... batten the hatches, Drag out the "ol Ark and check the lister is fueled up in it and hang onto your hat... and roof.
And what happens, everywhere? Nothing more than a good stiff breeze and a passing shower. Literally!
I understand it's probably difficult in the extreme to say is going to be 25 or 23 tomorrow and it turns out 3 degree either way but when you are putting the fear of a spiritual Daiety into a couple of Million people, You'd want to get it right a lot more than you get it wrong.... But they don't.
There is the old thing with the Globull warming concern about how can they predict 50 years when they can't tell what the weather will be like Next Tuesday and it's true! they predict seasons 3 Months away and that's not even close and so it goes. I really find no basis for the predictions to ever be right based on decades of past predictions and even the ones they make now.
Is just the Oz weather forecasters that would do better to ask Aunt Tilly if her Lumbago is acting up and keep a Cow in the back yard so they can look out and see if ol Besse is sitting down before they roll the dice, stick their head out the window and make a guess with the same sort of reliability as they get it right now, or do they have some accuracy and reliability where you live?