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Author Topic: The future of electric Vehicles.  (Read 11302 times)

ajaffa1

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #150 on: April 16, 2018, 12:15:39 PM »
Glort is absolutely right in his assessment that the electricity grid is completely unable to provide the megawatts required to charge the Australian fleet of vehicles. At present our grid is incapable of supplying sufficient energy to cover air conditioning on hot days. The idea that my ability to travel to work or to go to the shops (100 km round trip) should be determined by an already over stretched distribution/generation system frightens the life out of me.

So what can we do about this? I believe that Glort has comprehensively proved that PV systems can produce more electricity than he knows what to do with, at a very low capital expenditure. The problem as always is storage/distribution of this energy and the gubermints dependence on the revenue from fossil fuels.

Perhaps what is needed is a complete change in the way we tackle this issue, imagine a motor vehicle with multiple fuel capabilities. It could recharge and store power from solar PV systems when you are at home but also act as a generator when the grid goes out or possibly provide an off grid supply. I don`t know how to build such a vehicle but I suspect that someone on this forum probably does and I look forward to their input.

Bob


 

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #151 on: April 16, 2018, 01:53:58 PM »
As usual, You add a slant of very insightful ideas and points Bob. I always enjoy reading your comments very much because of this.


At present our grid is incapable of supplying sufficient energy to cover air conditioning on hot days.

I know I rant and rave about the greenwashed but it's not out of spite as one might say but worry.
We have the ludicrous situation where the green ideals have become so blinding, common sense has gone out the window at a farcical rate.
South Oz has literally blown up coal fired power stations in the name of the environment and emissions etc only to have such a shortfall in reliable power they have had to install DIESEL generators that burn 2 tanker loads of fuel per HOUR to make up the shortfall.

I have never looked it up but common sense tells me that a coal fired power station is going to create a lot less emissions than mammoth Diesels pounding away... and that's from someone who loves Diesels.  The environmental movement/ religion is causing so much DAMAGE this way.

NO, coal fired power stations are not desirable but for the moment, the reality is they are the lesser evil as against Diesel Generators so why in the hell did we go backwards in the name of Improvement?  There is such a gut busting hurry to make everything green, we are making it black at a far faster rate than if we just left things the hell alone till there was a workable technology.
And please, before anyone insults my intelligence again with crap about having to do test or pilot programs for later technologys, get your head out your nether regions.  If they can computer model Space craft, Jumbo jets, buildings and other things so they are ready to go out the box, they can damn well do it with anything in the power industry.

Once again it's all green and money riding on the back of a worthwhile cause corrupting the shit out of it and sheeple too damn lazy and stupid to realise or do anything about it.

It's tragic, absoloutly tragic. The people that are saying they want to preserve the planet  for future generations are so often the ones responsible for accelerating it's demise.


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The idea that my ability to travel to work or to go to the shops (100 km round trip) should be determined by an already over stretched distribution/generation system frightens the life out of me.

I don't think you need worry Bob. I see 3 major factors at work:

1.  NOTHING will replace oil till it has run out and so expensive that the oil companies and gubbermints start loosing money.
Despite all the veste interests saying the opposite, I believe there is 50-100 years supply at least.  Ever notice the only time you hear about oil running out is when the price goes sky high for political and business reasons?  I haven't heard anything about an oil shortage for at least 3 years. Next time the arabs ( whom don't produce nearly as much oil as people believe) want to up the price, you can gaurantee the " Oil is running out" BS will be laid on 10 feet thick once again to distract how you are being ripped off and make you feel thankful to get it at any price.  Pure marketing and sales 101.

2. I don't believe Electrics will ever be the MAIN fuel replacement. I and others have highlighted so many problems with that and I'll gaurantee there are a lot more we are ignorant to and haven't thought of. The great majority of the touted plusses are in fact flawed and there is a lot the public is not told in order to spin doctor opinion the way business and gubbermints want it.

3.  NO current technology is really satisfactory.  Not electric, biofuels, Hydrogen..... None of them.
That leaves up with having to come up with something new all together and something none of us have yet heard of. I am certain it will not be driven by environmental concerns, it could be the most polluting thing imaginable But I guarantee it will be profitable and controllable.  You won't be crapping in a container and putting it in the reactor to drive to work. It will be a processed fuel that gubbermints and business can control, regulate and earn biblical revenue from.

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I believe that Glort has comprehensively proved that PV systems can produce more electricity than he knows what to do with, at a very low capital expenditure. The problem as always is storage/distribution of this energy and the gubermints dependence on the revenue from fossil fuels.

Like the biofuels thing I immersed myself in 15 years ago, I'm finding the solar thing just keeps me learning new things every time I think I have a handle on it.
Today was a prime example.  I have presently 8.5 Kw of solar on my 9x9M Shed. I have 1.5Kw on the back pergola and the 4kw I go running a few days back.  There is also 1.75 Kw lying on an unused bit of garden because I'm trying to squeeze something out of panels otherwise sitting there doing nothing and I'm hoping the heat from the things Cooks the bulbous weeds in that bit of garden for good measure.

My total generation for the Day was 38 Kwh.  Thats not bad, more power than I used today being I didn't run the air at all BUT.... It's less than I was getting a few months back when i only had 8.5 Kw of panels up and running.
yes, it was a slightly hazy day but it was still warm and there was no cloud shading.  With nearly 16 Kw of panels, I would still be well under the power required to charge a small EV. And that's with ALL the power diverted to the vehicle which means I'd be paying full tilt for what I used in my home.
And that is without heating or cooling and my only option here other than wood is Electric.

At one stage I thought i'd be going overboard with 10 Kw on the roof then I started crunching numbers and seeing what winter fall off was.  I have another 5Kw to put on the roof which will give me about 20 in total and I wonder how far under i'm going to be in winter. Sure, in summer I'll be able to power the homes either side of me and turn the hose in to a cod stores with the AC but when that inevitable fortnight of non stop rain comes as it does every winter, I'm going to have to hope it's early in the billing cycle so I have a chance to make it up.

There is also thing thing that I am fortunate enough  to have a big shed with half the roof facing the perfect direction and an even bigger house roof with enough roof perfectly orientated  to just allow 5Kw of panels and the entire west face having Minimal shading.... which I'll fix with a chainsaw to improve further.
Many places I have looked at have severe shading problems so they could cover their roofs in panels and still probably struggle to meet their daily home consumption.

To keep an EV charged, one of the 4 vehicles the 3 of us have, I'd pretty much have to cover my entire and unusually large roof area.
If I were buying new panels, I reckon that would easy be a $50K exercise.
But take your pick, pay it up front in solar or pay a hell of a lot in power..... Like triple your current home Bill PER Vehicle.  For us, that would be ( Counting 3 cars only) about $3100 a MONTH.
I can assure you, we don't spend that on petrol and power combined even without any solar offset.
Make's that $50K look like not so bad an investment afterall..... even though it's still going to leave up with a not inconsiderable shortfall on energy.

STORAGE is the key thing right now. Making power isn't that hard. I have many reservations over the effects of covering vast tracts of the planet with black PV panels or mirrors and the environmental effects that Might have but none the less, it does give us some reduction in fossil fuel use and therefore options and breathing space. |

I don't put anything in these new ideas as featured in press releases and editorials any more. i'm still waiting for this incredible breakthrough engine that uses no fuel, develops 1000Hp and weighs 10Kg to arrive. Been waiting for that my entire life and been told it's just around the corner. They will be still saying that the day they nail me in my mahogany box.
When I can go buy it, see one working or it be an everyday item, THEN I will accept it.
Until such time all these Safe, powerful, clean, environmentally friendly new reported ideas are just investment ploys and BS to me.


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Perhaps what is needed is a complete change in the way we tackle this issue, imagine a motor vehicle with multiple fuel capabilities.

As I said, I don't believe the mainstream vehicles of the future will use any technology we are talking about or are aware of now. I have no idea what that may be.  The bit that scares me is that I might be more right than I realise and no one else has a clue what the realistic and practical way forward is either.  It plays on my mind that I could be right and all this talk of hydrogen and electric is exactly what I think and just a distraction from the reality, that there is nothing and we may be headed into an energy crisis that will put us back to like the dark ages.

I don't think any of us here will be around to see it but those of you fortunate to have grandchildren might want to put some of your concern into that even before worrying about C02 and globull warming.

buickanddeere

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #152 on: April 16, 2018, 10:48:39 PM »
  The Fukishima incident was much compounded by plant managers that did not want to loose face and be embarrassed by having to vent hydrogen gas from the units. If the explosive hydrogen had been gotten rid of.  The Fukishima reactor buildings would have remained intact. With the over heated fuel collecting in the basement.
   As for Chernobyl being "Toxic". Somebody forget to tell the abundant and thriving wildlife in the restricted sector around the facility. No three eyed fish and no more than the average amount of  animals with cancerous lumps.
   Too bad the anti NUC's have no idea or don't want to hear how radioactive that Coleman Lamp mantles are. Or smoke detectors , granite counter tops, home basements or the broad band blast of energy they receive from the sun while on the beach.

LowGear

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #153 on: April 17, 2018, 06:19:00 PM »
No three eyed fish - No problems.

How many kilo tons or is it mega tons of concrete have they poured on the reactor or where the reactor used to be and continue to pour?
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BruceM

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #154 on: April 17, 2018, 07:37:53 PM »
Here's an example of the kind of ignorant, tin hat wearing, nuclear phobic person B&D is referring to:

Admiral Rickover was the developer of the US nuclear navy and renowned engineer. Here's a quote from Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_G._Rickover

"Given Rickover's single-minded focus on naval nuclear propulsion, design, and operations, it came as a surprise to many[46] in 1982, near the end of his career, when he testified before the U.S. Congress that, were it up to him what to do with nuclear powered ships, he "would sink them all." At a congressional hearing Rickover testified that:

    "I do not believe that nuclear power is worth it if it creates radiation. Then you might ask me why do I have nuclear powered ships. That is a necessary evil. I would sink them all. I am not proud of the part I played in it. I did it because it was necessary for the safety of this country. That's why I am such a great exponent of stopping this whole nonsense of war. Unfortunately limits — attempts to limit war have always failed. The lesson of history is when a war starts every nation will ultimately use whatever weapon it has available. ... Every time you produce radiation, you produce something that has a certain half-life, in some cases for billions of years. ... It is important that we control these forces and try to eliminate them." (Economics of Defense Policy: Hearing before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, 97th Cong., 2nd sess., Pt. 1 (1982))"

Rickover knew by then that there is no such thing as a safe level of radiation; the incidence of illness just increases with accumulated exposure.  The incidence of thyroid disease globally continues to rise, thus more overweight, fatigued people who have difficulty thinking and are depressed.  I've struggled with thyroid disease along with other autoimmune diseases from a toxic exposure myself and it is no party.

The US Navy has one of the best nuclear safety records in the world.  I'd much rather they were operating our present civilian solid fuel fission plants until we can do something much inherently safer.







« Last Edit: April 18, 2018, 03:09:15 AM by BruceM »

buickanddeere

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #155 on: April 17, 2018, 08:18:56 PM »
Glort is absolutely right in his assessment that the electricity grid is completely unable to provide the megawatts required to charge the Australian fleet of vehicles. At present our grid is incapable of supplying sufficient energy to cover air conditioning on hot days. The idea that my ability to travel to work or to go to the shops (100 km round trip) should be determined by an already over stretched distribution/generation system frightens the life out of me.

So what can we do about this? I believe that Glort has comprehensively proved that PV systems can produce more electricity than he knows what to do with, at a very low capital expenditure. The problem as always is storage/distribution of this energy and the gubermints dependence on the revenue from fossil fuels.

Perhaps what is needed is a complete change in the way we tackle this issue, imagine a motor vehicle with multiple fuel capabilities. It could recharge and store power from solar PV systems when you are at home but also act as a generator when the grid goes out or possibly provide an off grid supply. I don`t know how to build such a vehicle but I suspect that someone on this forum probably does and I look forward to their input.

Bob

Extra cost, extra space required and extra weight will make the larger batteries impractical . When and where is there going to be surplus power to re-charge these batteries after driving to work or driving home . Having these batteries provide enough power to carry the utility grid ......then where and when will they be re-charged enough to drive the vehicle to work or home from work.
    How many electric vehicles would it require to supply the utility grid with an extra 1000 Mw for eight hours .
« Last Edit: April 18, 2018, 05:18:40 AM by buickanddeere »

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #156 on: April 17, 2018, 11:58:47 PM »

Extra cost, extra space required and extra weight will make the larger batteries impractical .

Not sure what you are talking about but clearly, Neither do you.

The proposals atm for solar power is to have batteries in every home. They charge on solar during the day and then are controlled to release power back to the grid when it is needed as well as power the home.
There is a company here in Oz doing just that right now.  https://repositpower.com/
This isn't another load of ' The next generation of reactors will be safe and clean" Crap they have been saying for 50 years, it's working and in practice NOW.

It would not be hard obviously to incorporate EV batteries into this grid feedback scheme although being honest and fair unlike some whom want to push particular fantasy's at all costs, the charging of an EV through the day at work seems like it would be difficult for most.

As far as cost goes, What is the cost to construct a Nuke plant, how long does it take, what is the running cost per year and how many batteries and panels would that construction and annual running cost pay for to be fitted to homes?


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When is there going to be surplus power to charge these batteries after driving to work or driving home .

Well clearly for most people, there wouldn't be and no one is saying there would. The excess power would come through the day from your solar and charge the home battery which could then send the energy where needed, whatever application that was.
Most free standing homes and duplex homes here and I imagine else where would have more than enough space on unused walls to fit multiple battery systems. If solar arrays were installed for max generation, then 10 Kw would not be hard to do on an average home and I would imagine most homes here could do 20. Where I am where the homes tend to be large single storey with substantial roof are for both the shed and home, 50Kwh would be a walk in the park.  The smaller project houses they are throwing up ( which is what they make me want to do, throw up,) would still accommodate 2+ battery systems and have enough roof for at least 10 Kw of panels.

Round here they are proudly announcing 33,000 new homes in the next 7 years.  If each home has 2 10 Kwh batteries the same in panels, that's a LOT of power offset.  The space and weight does not matter because it is distributed rather than all lumped in one place.


Quote
Having these batteries provide enough power to carry the utility grid ......then be charged enough to drive the vehicle to work or home from work.

That's a flawed argument from the start. Batteries are never going to carry the grid and there are other power sources in operation right now. Solar, hydro, wind in the renewable and coal in the undesirable sector.  There are NO nukes in oz thank god and we still have a grid as erratic as the green washed have destabilized it.

The 2nd flaw in your argument is even if your single minded, tunnel visioned, one track Nuke ignorance was allowed to put nukes everywhere, the generation is a secondary issue to the distribution.  You'd need power plants everywhere and there is certainly not the space in many parts to accomodate them. there is not a hope in hell in the current green climate that people would allow them to proliferate either and there would be rioting and the overthrow of Gubbermints.  You may call people ignorant or scared or whatever but the reality is the opinion is what it is and nukes for the best part are dead in the water.

In order to have a hope in hell of supplying EV's ( which as I have pointed out I don't think is practical) the generation and distribution would have to be localised.  Use it where you generate it rather than trying to supply gigawatts from limited locations and have forests of wires on ugly and vulnerable towers running everywhere etc.

Taking widespread use of ev's out of the equation, having every home fitted with solar and a battery or several would go a very long way to easing the load on the grid. If this would be allowed by gubbermints and big biz whom will miss out on revenue is another question but one thing is for sure, the chances of building nukes here in oz from a public opinion and cost aspect alone is zero. They touted it 20 years ago when the green sentiment was nothing like it is now and the opposition to it was so severe the idea was dropped in weeks.
You may carry on with outright lies and garbage trying to talk up your vested interests but all it would get you here is dismissed as a moron and probably a punch in the face if you kept insulting peoples intelligence with your false claims.
 
   
Quote
How many electric vehicles would it require to supply the utility grid with an extra 1000 Mw for eight hours .

Lets see.  Shouldn't be hard for a smart person to work out even if I am not that person or smart enough.

Lets say every vehicle has a 50 KWh battery and they can " donate 50% of that to the grid.

1000/ .25= 4000 x 8 ( hours) = 32,000 Vehicles.  Maybe I'm off by a decimal point and it's 320,000 Vehicles. No matter.
Quick lookup tells me there are over 16M passenger vehicles and light commercials ( vans, trucks under 4ton capacity) in oz. 18.4M in total being Trucks, trailers, busses, etc.
That means there is 50X the amount of passenger vehicles required ( assuming the higher figure of 320,000) than required to power the grid for 8 hours at 1000Mw if each vehicle was able to donate 50% of it's assumed 50Kwh charge.

You can put endless error into that, assume only 20 % of the vehicle fleet is electric and you are still there very comfortably. Assume they can only contribute 5KW, no matter Assume only 20% are plugged in at any given time and so it goes. You still get a practical number and percentage.

So to answer your question, the answer is a very practical and Doable amount even in a relatively low populated country like OZ.
Run the numbers for the US and you are not even going to need 1 major city to get you over the line!

Of course the question is, With any sort of a first wold grid, why would you need the injection of that sort of power for that many hours in the first place?
The answer is more realistic than the question!
« Last Edit: April 18, 2018, 12:05:07 AM by glort »

BruceM

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #157 on: April 18, 2018, 03:46:40 AM »
By most reporting there is excess grid capacity in the US, especially after the evening peak, though in some locales distribution will have to be upgraded.  As for solar during the day-  if your home PV is feeding the grid, and your car is slow charging at work after the morning peak is over, you have a net zero carbon situation. The power co's will love this as they will no doubt get a nice profit from your home PV power.

I think every region will have to rely on a different mix of renewables and power storage.  It will all shake out after climate change gets severe enough to wake people up...such as when food production is seriously affected.  The power co.s will still own the grid and despite all their whining they are guaranteed to profit no matter how that role evolves.

I disagree with Glort on public opinion against nukes. I think he's way too optimistic about the public. I think that if solid fueled nuclear fission plants were more profitable, a well funded propaganda campaign would easily manipulate the American public to accept them (or almost anything). Even without changing to safer designs, it would be easy to "safety wash" some trivial new safety feature such as calling them "smart nuclear" and sell it to the public. 

 “No matter how cynical you get, it is impossible to keep up.”  Lily Tomlin

I personally think electric cars will add to the daily EMF exposure burden and along with continued expansion of pulsed microwaves and soon millimeter waves (5G) will cause even more serious chronic illness. At some point chronic illness will cripple society. Humans have tremendous propensity to ignore warnings and discredit or marginalize those who either become ill or are the messengers.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2018, 07:00:42 PM by BruceM »

buickanddeere

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #158 on: April 18, 2018, 05:45:02 AM »
   33,000 homes with 20Kw hr of batteries . Given an average of 12hr of daylight, with the first two hours after dawn and the last 2 hours prior to sunset . There is 8 hours of charge time and 16hrs of every 24hrs  reliant on batteries.
  How large are the roofs on these homes to support enough PV panels to power the home during the daylight loads of heating, cooling, cooking, entertainment, fridge, freezer etc plus charge 20Kw hr of batteries.
   Over the 16 hrs of non PV generation per day all those batteries can produce is 41 Mw of power.
    As there are losses in charging, discharging and conversion to AC, count on a loosing 20% or more of that 41Mw per hour over 16 hours. Also consider short winter days with the sun at a lower angle .
  As peak demand on the Australian utility grid is 47,000Mw..............good luck with your battery storage. That is 47 million homes . Actually 59 million as lithium batteries should not be operated from 0% to 100% to 0% .
   PV and batteries all sound well and good with noble goals etc. However the practical combination is nuclear baseload, PV daytime peaking with fossil carrying the morning and evening peaks when PV production is lost.     
   Liquid metal or molten salt fission reactors are the solution for utility grid power.
   btw what was the retail price of power prior to the subsidized solar and wind generation being built vs after ?   

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #159 on: April 18, 2018, 06:09:53 AM »
However the practical combination is nuclear

Yes, of course it is.  How could you have ever suggested anything else?  ::)

LowGear

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #160 on: April 18, 2018, 06:14:26 PM »
Some of us believe and some do not.  Few things are static.  In 20 years when there could be some possibility of most cars being electric with charging required lots of other factors will have matured including our centralized grid program.  We may even pull our nuclear boats and ships into the center of cities to provide the much needed power for our armies of robots - domestic of course. 

Most of the naysayers I've encountered are often standing right smack dab in the middle of where I want to work.

At this time, for me, electric cars have some real advantages.  While I'm getting my 64 Morris back on the road I'll be happy with the dream car of my thirties and forties.  This years dream cars all are electrically powered.  What would I do if someone developed a petroleum based fuel cell motor?  Buy stock in Saudi Arabia of course.
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glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #161 on: April 18, 2018, 08:34:38 PM »

 Buy stock in Saudi Arabia of course.

I never cease to be amazed at why Americans think all ( or the majority) of their oil comes from the Middle east??

As I have tried to point out, at length, electric cars are not the issue. Finding the power to run them is.
I have a LOT of clear roof space and certainly more than the average home owner which I'm filling with panels . I couldn't put enough panels up to keep an electric car charged for my wife's daily Commute let alone charge my Daughters and my car.

Just like oil, when the demand for power goes up, so will the price.  Nuke is not the solution there because completely opposite to the touted " cheap" power, it is in fact the most expensive.

The few times Nuke powered ships have come into our harbors, there have been huge protests and outcrys. Trying to dock one permanently to supply power would be a completely impractical idea and get which ever gubbermint who tried it thrown out on their arses overnight pretty much.

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #162 on: April 19, 2018, 05:49:01 PM »
Quote
Buy stock in Saudi Arabia of course.

I never cease to be amazed at why Americans think all ( or the majority) of their oil comes from the Middle east??

A lot of stuff in this world amaze me.  Like taking jokes literally.  Not seeing the metaphor. 

Have a nice day.
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mikenash

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #163 on: April 19, 2018, 06:22:19 PM »
 plus one on that Casey

buickanddeere

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #164 on: April 20, 2018, 12:32:08 AM »

 Buy stock in Saudi Arabia of course.

I never cease to be amazed at why Americans think all ( or the majority) of their oil comes from the Middle east??

As I have tried to point out, at length, electric cars are not the issue. Finding the power to run them is.
I have a LOT of clear roof space and certainly more than the average home owner which I'm filling with panels . I couldn't put enough panels up to keep an electric car charged for my wife's daily Commute let alone charge my Daughters and my car.

Just like oil, when the demand for power goes up, so will the price.  Nuke is not the solution there because completely opposite to the touted " cheap" power, it is in fact the most expensive.

The few times Nuke powered ships have come into our harbors, there have been huge protests and outcrys. Trying to dock one permanently to supply power would be a completely impractical idea and get which ever gubbermint who tried it thrown out on their arses overnight pretty much.
[/quote

 Most of the protestors are bored people, that are not cold, sick or hungry with time on their hands . Hey are looking for drama , attention and meaning to their existence.
    These same malcontents need to spend A few months in nations where food, housing, healthcare , education, heating, cooling, transportation , communication , safety and security are luxuries .