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Author Topic: The future of electric Vehicles.  (Read 16765 times)

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #180 on: April 21, 2018, 11:49:35 PM »

One thing those Links show is Tesla are not going to have the market to themselves as everything  they say and do seems to indicate. So many options and the big boys haven't even got started yet.  When GM, Ford, Chrysler Toymotor and VW decide it's time to get serious and leverage their Development. production and distribution might into the market, Hold on Tesla!

The press and public seem to think the big guys haven't got their act together yet.  I'll bet they are monitoring the market every day and don't believe the market potential is profitable so far. I bet when they do, it will be an electric avalanche. Once one plays it's hand they will all follow quickly in order to have market share.

2 Things strike me with the cars linked in the Vids:

Most of them don't look like they would pass our ADR's, Australian Design Rules which cover vehicle design, standards and safety to permit vehicles to be road legal here. 
As factory Built cars they would have two options. Come in under a limited import license which means they won't be able to have many which causes problems with dealers, parts availability and repairs... OR... They have the things certified which is a multi million dollar exercise and requires crash testing of at least one, I think 3 of the things.  I think that would be the sticking point for most of them.

We have 3 wheelers here in the form of Can am's  but they are a VERY rare thing to see on the roads.
Other big hurdle to these cars right now would be yet again, Price. I'm sure they would sell to the market that wanted an antidote to a Mid life crisis or as a gift from Daddy warbucks to his spoilt little Girl, but selling in any sort of number as a transport alternative..... Can't see it happening for a Long time yet.

There is another competitor on the scene actively being worked on by Vw and others.  Super efficient Diesels.
They have the futuristic look of the EV's and get 150 MPG or better.  Price is still way out there but you could take them to the dealers in established network and if you wanted to drive one cross country only stopping every 300 Miles for about 5 Min to fill the 2 gallon tank, you could.

While EV's are getting developed, so are conventional Vehicles despite the Hoopla about everything being electric by tomorrow.
Just isn't flavor of the month headlines right now.

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #181 on: April 22, 2018, 12:09:04 AM »

I was looking some more at electric bikes.
Hooley Dooley! They race these things and have Hubs they can get 20 Kw out of.... and more!
These Bikes will go as fast as the suicide Jockey in the saddle will take them pretty much. If one wanted to produce a cheap and economical form of electric transport for daily commute, the parts and tech are already there.

Stick a 20KW hub in each corner of even a small production car and you are going to have something that's fast as hell and would still have room for enough batteries to go any distance you wanted in a normal work commoute. A Subaru Impreza sans engine, gearbox and Running gear is only about 500Kg with interiour still intact. Picked enough up with forklifts to know. You could probably pull another 100Kg out of that if you lost the AC and a few other things before you really put effort into lightening it up.  Being an AWD, all you would need to do would be attach a bike hub  ( or similar small motor ) to each drive shaft, put in batteries and controllers ( heaps of space now the engine, gearbox, diff and fuel tank has gone along with exhaust)  and you have a crash test approved shell ( still with airbags etc) That's only slightly down on power but probably got a heap more torque the the original Vehicle.

There are a lot lighter cars around as well but an impreza is a proper 5 seater and has all the comforts bar the AC which amazingly, some people CAN live without.  For heating you could always duct air from the controller or battery cooling.

Maybe cottage industry's for conversions will really take off one day beyond the limited amount being done for real enthusiasts now.
Might also see at some point the same cars being offered in electric and IC in the meantime.

Still going to be interesting to see how the grid copes with the increased electric demand though.

BruceM

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #182 on: April 22, 2018, 12:56:22 AM »
The electric bike stuff is getting pretty impressive and affordable. 

I've thought about a way-behind-me electric pusher cart for a recumbent trike for when I'm not able to drive anymore; I can't walk as far as my mailbox which is 1/2 mile away.  No registration, no insurance needed in my state which wouldn't hurt either. 

The 2018 Subaru Impreza has a curb weight of around 3000 lbs- minus engine and tranny for electric conversion, but still, not a lightweight car. Maybe the Australia version is different?

« Last Edit: April 22, 2018, 01:00:02 AM by BruceM »

buickanddeere

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #183 on: April 22, 2018, 06:26:06 AM »
  The best all around compromise to build an EV is the Chevy Bolt.
  The Leaf is a kid's go-kart made street legal, doesn't even have battery thermal regulation.
  As previously stated the Tesla has impressive highway miles at the expense of cost, size and weight. The energy required to accelerate and decelerate all that Tesla mass in stop and go around town driving makes it little better than the Bolt in range.

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #184 on: April 22, 2018, 09:57:42 AM »
The electric bike stuff is getting pretty impressive and affordable. 

I guess it would depend on your outlook. To me it's still not cheap but 20Kw+ from a motor that is in the hub of a bicycle is VERY impressive to be sure!

Quote
I've thought about a way-behind-me electric pusher cart for a recumbent trike for when I'm not able to drive anymore; I can't walk as far as my mailbox which is 1/2 mile away.  No registration, no insurance needed in my state which wouldn't hurt either. 

Does not seem to me like it would be much of an option for you.  With teh motor and controllers I would assume there is a terrible lot of EMF there that would affect you Bruce.  Whats are the laws regarding something powered by a small electric start China Diesel?  they come 7 and 10 HP which should be enough for what you describe.
Would you get around the regulations as a mobility devise/ disabled driver?  Would seem to be a far better option for you. Take out the alternator stator and you should have no EMF at all.

Quote
The 2018 Subaru Impreza has a curb weight of around 3000 lbs- minus engine and tranny for electric conversion, but still, not a lightweight car. Maybe the Australia version is different?

No, they are heavy here too. Very little difference in them between Countries. You are right, the new ones are not light and have been getting heavier every model actually.  The new ones have the CVT transmissions and that is a Monster. Not sure what it weighs but having pulled a couple out now, I can tell you it's a heck of a lot more than the old ones.
They run fiercly hot as well. things have hig coolers on them and thermal blankets to stop the heat radiating into the cabin.  Engines are all variable cam timing as well  so thinking about it, Most of the extra weight over the older models is probably in the running gear.

I was more thinking of something a bit older in my comment though. Couldn't see anyone chopping up a current model car to electrify it but that was just my thinking and may not be everyone elses.

10 Yo car is still very comfortable and as you are going to remove most of the things that really wear out anyway... wouldn't make that much difference apart from the weight difference.

I don't know what would be a current model that is lightish in any make. I'd probably think something Korean might be the go.
Myself I'm not that concerned with driving new cars and it wouldn't occur to me to chop up a current model.  I like older cars anyway. 10 Yo would be perfectly satisfactory for me and give me all the comfort I needed.
If I am going to take out all the running gear, then I'm less worried about age than I am condition but price would be significant in the base car I started with.    :laugh:

BruceM

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #185 on: April 22, 2018, 04:17:18 PM »
I agree that for me, an electric pusher cart would be a serious technical challenge...but I suppose that would be part of the appeal- can it be done? (Which is a lot more fun when you have staff and budget not out of your own measly pocket.)  My shop at my first home here in the White Mountains was 24x24 feet and had a window mounted evaporative cooler for ventilation on the west wall, with my bench near the east.  The induction motor was a two speeed 1/2 hp.  I could only use it on low, and I put a loose wrap of grain oriented electrical steel (aka GOES) around the motor  to reduce the stray magnetic field by 50%.  Still, it was 4 microgauss at my workbench...the limit where I could work for a some hours and not have a whopping headache and MS flare up later.  So for the pusher cart I was thinking multiple insulated concentric cans of mumetal around the can type (not hub) motor (each a 50% reduction) and I'd have to do my own controller to reduce high frequency EMI.  Plastic optical fiber forward to throttle controls to avoid the antenna effect.  A 10 foot shaft from cart to rear of trike would likely be the minimum.  Motors are a bitch to shield, but the principles were developed in WWII to avoid magnetic sea mines.

I'm still ticked off that Mark Cherry's smartplugs didn't attract any interest besides myself and some DARPA one fuel forward program money.  A smartplug lets you convert any gas or propane engine to a low pressure diesel...  zero EMI from spark system or electronic injection.  I have a tough time with air cooled diesel noise and exhaust and would prefer a propane engine fueled car if I could get rid of the damned magneto-spark.  I did an alcohol fueled conversion of a Honda 2hp 4 cycle outboard to homemade smartplug that worked out OK, but that was possible because the catalytic reaction of methanol fuel and platinum is very strong so I could use a small RC glow plug in the smartplug chamber. Gas or propane fuel requires more platinum wire and more fuel/air flow over it per Mark's later patents.

PS  Glort was right on the mark on the used EV issue.  I read a couple articles and the 3 year depreciation is a horror show.  Interesting the article mentions the old Chevy Volt (not Bolt) as having very long lived batteries... like 300K miles. 

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1109640_lessons-learned-from-early-electric-car-2011-nissan-leaf-at-90000-miles/page-2

In reading about the batteries in the Leaf, Tesla and Volt, as B&D noted, the Leaf has no cooling and the poor cell management we noted in another thread...thus so many used leaf battery modules for sale.  When crowing about how little owners pay for charging (via coal), they conveniently forget the ongoing battery replacement cost.  If your replacement battery (probably $800 in labor to get to it or more) is $40k and you get 80,000 miles from it, that's $0.50 a mile for battery replacement cost plus pennies per mile charging.   Petrol fuel cost at say 30 mpg at $3/gallon, that's $0.10 per mile for fuel.  So with 400K mile batteries at $40K replacement cost, you can just break even with a gas car.



 

« Last Edit: April 22, 2018, 05:00:57 PM by BruceM »

LowGear

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #186 on: April 22, 2018, 07:18:51 PM »
Quote
Most of them don't look like they would pass our ADR's, Australian Design Rules which cover vehicle design, standards and safety to permit vehicles to be road legal here.
The three wheel crowd are currently getting around this here in the states by getting them classified as motorcycles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMuubBNW4Tg

There is also some work being done on a new classification for light weight vehicles.  I sse mention of them but I can't find any links this morning.  I'm searching for "autocar" or something like that.

As for safety; you're just hanging your sweet ass out there a bit when you jump into one of these light weight units.  Single vehicle crashes might hold some advantages for them but the other irresistible force transportation devices could be really bad for the light weights.  They still look safer than two wheel units. 

Speaking of the two wheel units have you seen the stand alone two wheelers.  Wow.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Okf283Ct-NY  And electric too.

I apologize for getting us back on topic for a moment.  I'm thinking that we either get our heads out into the bright sunlight on personal transportation or dip the entire planet in concrete or tarmac.  I've always liked the "For Rent" and "For Sale" signs in downtown Seattle that over looked the freeways and also read: "If you lived here you'd already be home."

I still wonder if diesel will every really make a comeback.  Especially here in the states.  I like the power curve but the stuff that's too small to see or smell reports to really take away health outlooks.  The expected life of Americans has gone down for the last two years.  This is a really new wrinkle.  I think it has much more to do with stupid food and lifestyle choices than with dirty power generation but if we were making better food choices we'd probably also make better generation choices as well.  No, I'm not turning my back on Lister or Witte for that matter.  Extraordinary devices will always have a home here whether they were developed in 1920 or 2018.


« Last Edit: April 22, 2018, 07:46:29 PM by LowGear »
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BruceM

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #187 on: April 23, 2018, 05:36:49 AM »
Read an article on the Chevy Bolt.  Presently $15,700 for a replacement battery, the original is under warranty for 100K or 150K miles depending on state. So presently 16 cents a mile at the 100K mile figure.  If you make it to 200K that's 8 cents/mile.   Add charging power costs and it's still no bargain compared to a gas car's fuel at 10 cents a mile.  If the batteries come down in price dramatically, or last longer then it will catch on.

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #188 on: April 23, 2018, 10:29:52 AM »

I don't know about other Electrics, but tesla's here ate least are WAAAY more exy to run than a petrol vehicle.  I Imagine other cars in other places bar a couple of the Nordic countries maybe are the same.

From The Tesla page at:
https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/supercharger
under the Bs heading of " Less than the cost of petrol"  (it's this kind of outright lies and Bullshit the EV/ green/ Tesla crowd have to tell that shits me to tears)

You will see a pic of a car and a super charger and a graph that shows a Model S traveling the FIRST 1500 Km costs $97 in Electricity.
Note the fine print here, that's AFTER they give you a 400 Kwh Credit.  They base the cost of power on .35c Kwh which is a creditable average figure.

They Price a petrol car doing 7.7L 100 KM @ $1.15/ L @ $133.
That sort of consumption would be what you would get from a largish vehicle here and the price per liter although widely variable is the sort of figure I'd expect to see where I am.

Now remember, This is for the FIRST 1500 Kw where you have the 400Kwh Credit. At 35c KWH, that's worth $140.
No one is going to drive a car just 1500Km ( 940ish Miles?)  so if we look at the next 1500 km and every 1500 KM there after, we see the tesla is now going to cost a whopping $270 in power but the petrol car is still going to cost the same $133.

So in fact, after the first 1500 Km, the Tesla costs $133 MORE  ( Over Double) than the petrol vehicle.

Seriously, I doesn't know who is more freaking stupid, Tesla to put something so transparent and thinly veiled on their site or the fan boys and people with too much money whom would buy one of these things or just the EV washed in general that claim EV's are Cheaper to run.  ::) ::)

I Looked at the Bolt in the US ( don't have them here and their numbers which they do not show the calcs for on face value have the bolt saving $300 a year over " Gas".
On our prices " Gas" is about half of what we pay and power about 1/3rd. Don't see the calculation and there is mention of a $7500 credit.  Wether the calculations include that to make the Bolt more attractive I don't know but seems likely. If it takes a $7500 credit which apparently isn't applicable in all US states to get ahead a measly $325.50 a year ( $7.05  week) then I'd certainly say the whole thing of EV's being cheaper to run is a great stinking, steaming pile of unmitigated lies.

Even if it's $325 saving straight up, how many people are really going to be concerned about a pissant saving like that?
And again, as predictable as sunrise, they harp on about the savings on oil Changes like you have to do one every damn week.  You can  get them done anywhere here for $60, $280 a year?  Yeah, go out and buy another house and pay off the mortgage with money to throw around like that.

And of course none of this is touching the very valid point Bruce makes about battery life.
Ironicaly enough again, I was just watching a Vid last night where a University professor whom is wheelchair Bound removed a battery pack as if replacing it.  I don't know what it took to get it out the car in the first place as they had what looked like the floorpan sitting on stands but if any of the rest of the procedure was anything to go by, it would not have been easy, quick or cheap to have someone do it.

I wonder how many of these cars will have their batteries replaced?
I can see the cars being offloaded cheap when the packs start getting weak but I wonder, who is going to be prepared to spend what will have to be the better part of $20K on a small car that's already done 100K Miles?
On our average mileage, that's going to be about an 8 Yo car.

Maybe some of the DIY 'ers will make up their own packs out of used laptop batteries like they do powerwalls now. Maybe some will just throw in an amount of Lead acid forklift batteries and have the things be able to do 50 Miles or something short just for grocery Getters.

No, wait, what am I saying???
In the US you need an F-250 with a 7.3L Turbo diesel don't you?  :laugh:

buickanddeere

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #189 on: April 23, 2018, 02:18:18 PM »
Bikes maybe an option in Australia but here not even snow tires make a bike rideable in blizzards .
 Regarding home builds, conversions and cottage industry EV’s . The percentage of the population that can spin wrenches and use a multimeter is steadily dwindling . Unless the vehicle manufacture is a large brand name with a dealership in every town . Who wants to risk being stuck without service support .
   Extreme mileage diesels in a micro vehicle at steady highway operation is one thing. It is simple enough to build a diesel with excellent efficiency operating at wide open throttle/full fuel rack at peak torque rpms . Fine for generators , irrigation pumps , marine propulsion and ploughing a thousand acres of corn field .   However operation of a light highway vehicle is every else than the conditions described above for high fuel efficiency and operation of tier IV emissions equipment .
   The EV is the environmentalist’s wet dream , charging on solar or wind turbines . Then again there is the real world where the greenie’s solution to all the world’s problems actually makes more trouble than it solves .

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #190 on: April 23, 2018, 02:52:04 PM »
Bikes maybe an option in Australia but here not even snow tires make a bike rideable in blizzards .

Hardly Likely to be a problem. Only morons would attempt to ride a bike in a blizzard and I imagine not too many people would take a car out in one either unless they really have to .
I'm pretty sure most places don't have blizzards all year round and for those that do get some sunshine and warm weather, a bike might be something they would enjoy.


Quote
Regarding home builds, conversions and cottage industry EV’s . The percentage of the population that can spin wrenches and use a multimeter is steadily dwindling . Unless the vehicle manufacture is a large brand name with a dealership in every town . Who wants to risk being stuck without service support .

True enough.
I don't see it as any different to the Veg fuel thing I have been involved with for 15 Years. It's certainly not for everyone but for some whom don't mind getting their hands dirty, like a challenge and independence, there are some very exciting options out there for them.
As for getting stuck without service support, I am one of the few people that could work on my own vehicle and I'd be so arrogant to say as far as where the fuel is concerned, there would be few if any in the world that know more than I do about it.  You get that way when you actualy experiment and test with something for 15 years instead of just doing what the guy before you did.

I see a good many people on YT for instance that are tinkering with EV's and making reliable vehicles for a fraction of the price of new production types.
These people will always be around and i'd venture to say are the ones that will give the the EV thing legs if it's ever going to get them.
Like the veg oil fuel thing, I think EV's will catch on at least in a niche market but I think there will be a LOT of problems if they are pushed as something for everyone and to replace the IC engine.


Quote
Extreme mileage diesels in a micro vehicle at steady highway operation is one thing. It is simple enough to build a diesel with excellent efficiency operating at wide open throttle/full fuel rack at peak torque rpms . Fine for generators , irrigation pumps , marine propulsion and ploughing a thousand acres of corn field .   However operation of a light highway vehicle is every else than the conditions described above for high fuel efficiency and operation of tier IV emissions equipment .

You are clearly unaware of the sort of Mileage European Vehicles get. They are neither micro Vehicles and they are not getting extreme mileage but 40-50 MPG+ out of a family Vehicle is a big improvement over what US made vehicles average.  Even my brother in laws Japanese 1 ton Pickup can get 1000KM on a 65L tank Highway travel.

 
Quote
The EV is the environmentalist’s wet dream , charging on solar or wind turbines . Then again there is the real world where the greenie’s solution to all the world’s problems actually makes more trouble than it solves .

I have to agree with you there.
Like many other green things, I'm not against them per se, I just get fed to death with the constant lies, exaggerations, spin doctoring and ramming these ideals down everyones throat like if you have a different opinion or even dare to question them, there is something very wrong with you.
The fact these religions have to be lied about and con people to believe in them like the Tesla rubbish I quoted above is a prime example.

You are also right about green washed solutions causing more trouble than they solve.
There is clearly an inability and discontent to work towards a better outcome, anything labeled green has to be rushed in to replace old tried and proven technology's as fast as possible and way before practical.

I give you our very own green idiot idea of blowing up coal fired power stations here and then having to put in DIESEL generators that consume a tanker load of fuel an HOUR to keep the lights on.
The green mentality does not allow for rational and planned thinking. they could have said  We need to get rid of those dirty power stations, It's going to take 2 years to get enough reliable renewable in place to do that, lets start working on it so we can get rid of them and keep the lights on.
Nup, greenie mentality is they are terrible things we have to get rid of right now so lets blow them up and celebrate..... in the dark.

I also think that EV's at the present time have a lot to answer for and they are FAR from the clean and green things they are hyped up to be.
I bet their cradle to the grave impact on the planet is a lot worse than IC's but there would be so much spin doctoring and greenwashing I expect it's impossible to find out.


I just cannot fathom why these people refuse to do things in an orderly and logical manner to make a seamless transition to renewables instead of being in such a gut busting rush to have everything NOW when so much clearly does not work or does more damage overall than what it replaces. 

glort

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #191 on: April 23, 2018, 03:12:04 PM »

Was talking to my retired Mechanic Next door neighbour today about keeping an eye on his place while he is away on another great gray nomad Caravan trip.  I asked about his Nissan Diesel he tows with and was amazed to find it's 10 years old not the 2-3 I thought.

He's 70 and was saying that car would see him out. Something came up about Electric cars and he made a real valid point straight off.
If he replaced his Diesel with an EV, he couldn't even tow a decent box trailer.  We have a very small amount of EV's here but I'm not sure how many ATM can actually be fitted with a tow bar and what their capacity would be.  I think 1 of the teslas can tow but even so, I wonder how they would ever cope with towing a 20Ft van like my neighbour has.
Boats, Horsefloats, moving trailers and even box trailers going to the tip would be a problem for most EV's.

His 2.5L turblow diesel does fine with his big 2.5 ton van it and even has a fuel consumption down in the 10L/100Km range hauling it around.
-IF- an EV could do that, I would hate to think how long it would take to get anywhere stopping every 2-3 Hours if that, to recharge the things.

A "quick"  trip around Oz wouldn't take a month, it would take 6. At least.
And then you'd have to take a generator with you to make it from town to town on probably 3 sides of the country.    :laugh:

I can see the signs now.  Instead of last Fuel for XXX Miles signs, It will be " Last electrical outlet  for 50 Miles."
There will be a roadhouse with some Charging stations all powered by a thumping great Cummins Diesel generator recharging all the "clean " vehicles that have no emissions.

 :laugh:

BruceM

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #192 on: April 23, 2018, 04:53:49 PM »
I already have my last vehicle, and can't afford any new vehicle now but after crunching the numbers for operating cost it does appear they are selling these EVs based on a "green tinted illusion" at present.  Tesla had the right idea with the S and X models- a luxury status tech-toy for the wealthy. The model 3 is a status toy as well because it is in no way economical to own or operate.

The electricity prices here are low (coal - not accounting for the full health care costs and excess deaths and degradation of land from mining and  mercury and heavy metals spread in the downwind areas) compared to some places, about 12 cents a KWH, so for the Chevy Bolt at 3.5 miles/KWH that adds another 3.4 cents per mile to the battery replacement cost of 8 cents/mile (wildly optimistic 200K mile service life) and it is still over present fuel costs at 10 cents a mile. 

The ongoing battery replacement cost and cost/mile to recharge will be the figures to watch in the future.  Weight and aerodynamics will largely determine the car's efficiency for the latter as practical maximum efficiencies in electric motors and controllers have already been achieved. 

A battery weight and cost breakthrough is sorely needed. 
















LowGear

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #193 on: April 23, 2018, 06:13:52 PM »
Happiness is a state of mind.

I guess we all are just a mass of stupids being lead around by one fake news story after another.  The move to electric everything is on the march.  I'm tagging along.

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BruceM

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Re: The future of electric Vehicles.
« Reply #194 on: April 23, 2018, 06:53:02 PM »
Nothing wrong with wanting an electric car-  as long as you know going in what the true economics of it are.  It will improve air quality in cities, relocating the pollution to the rural areas with the coal/oil/NG plant, with no net benefit (yet) for the planet. (I'm avoiding nuclear on purpose.) In countries and regions where the grid is mostly renewable power, electric cars will be a net gain for the planet.  Today in the US, where you do your own charging via PV, it's a net gain for the planet, though not yet for your pocketbook.

Carbon tax on fossil fuels, if done well, could shift the power mix in a direction which would benefit future generations but public trust in governments to do things well and fairly isn't at an all time high and next month's mortgage, insurance, car loan, credit card bill is the focus for most.  In the US whatever simplistic media message is repeated the most, wins.

 

« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 10:27:18 PM by BruceM »